The Hindu Business Line : Widespread rain ahead of brewing ‘low’

Thiruvananthapuram, July 26 The monsoon trough has shifted southwards from the Himalayan foothills bringing with it active monsoon conditions into the Bay of Bengal and, by extension, to adjoining peninsular India.

On Saturday, the trough passed through Firozepur, Alwar, Khajuraho, Jamshedpur, Balasore and then southeastward into the east-central Bay where it is expected to throw up a crucial ‘low’ as early as by Sunday.

Peninsular weather has undergone a metamorphosis in anticipation and piloting rains have reached almost the entire arid belt, raising hopes for a turnaround in fortunes for moisture-stressed farms and fields.

A preparatory upper air cyclonic circulation has developed over the north-west and adjoining west-central Bay.

This is expected to descend to lower levels and become better organised to set up the ‘low.’

MAY INTENSIFY

This is forecast to become more ‘marked’ (intensification implied) in two days, bringing widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls over Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and South Chhattisgarh.

Its likely west-northwestward movement will cause the rain belt to shift to Maharashtra.

Meanwhile, a resident cyclonic circulation over West Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Madhya Pradesh is likely to move westwards and fetch good rains into central India and East Rajasthan over the next two days and later over Gujarat.

On Friday, monsoon was vigorous over coastal Andhra Pradesh and active over Telangana and South interior Karnataka.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Telangana, Kerala, coastal and South interior Karnataka; at many places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep; and at a few places over North interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu.

Significantly in Maharashtra, the monsoon was active over Marathawada, the worst hit Met sub-division that has had the dubious record of holding the ‘scanty rainfall’ (deficit of 60 to 99 per cent) tag all through the season.

Rainfall occurred at most places over the Konkan-Goa belt; at many places over South Madhya Maharashtra; at a few places over North Madhya Maharashtra, the South Gujarat region and Saurashtra; and at isolated places over North Gujarat region and Kutch.

This makes for a uniform spread of rains over a region that which was kept bone dry even as it poured heavily all over the northwest. Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Coastal Karnataka; at many places over South interior Karnataka, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh; and at a few places over North interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema.

A warning valid for the period said that isolated heavy rainfall is likely to occur over Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Ghat areas of South interior Karnataka.

As for Maharashtra, rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Konkan-Goa; at many places over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, the Gujarat region and Saurashtra; and at a few places over Kutch.

International models see a follow-up ‘low’ popping up in the Bay of Bengal by August 5 around the same coordinates as the one brewing currently. If materialising, this would ensure wet weather for the peninsula for at least the first 10 days in August but with implications from possible excess moisture for standing crops.

The IMD said the low-level jet over Arabian Sea, a crucial monsoon feature, has strengthened. The jet is embedded in the monsoon current pulled from across the Equator and passing through India. The current is forced to rise by the Ghats producing copious rainfall on the windward side.

The offshore trough extended from Konkan and Goa to Kerala coast on Saturday. Under this scenario, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls is likely along the West coast during the next five days.

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