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Suresh P. Iyengar

Mumbai, July 27 Revival of monsoon in recent days has brightened the prospects of soyabean output in the kharif season. Soyabean sowing has regained momentum in the last few days and the acreage under cultivation has increased 18.38 per cent to 6.50 million hectares from 5.49 million hectares logged last year, according to Union Agriculture Ministry data.

Though the area sown is higher than last year, production might fall due to below-normal rainfall in a few States, especially Maharashtra. However, the progress of monsoon in August will give a clear picture on the output.

Madhya Pradesh accounts for about 53 per cent of total soyabean grown in India, followed by Maharashtra at 34 per cent, Rajasthan 9 per cent, Karnataka 2 per cent, and Andhra Pradesh and Chattisgarh at 1 per cent each.

Apart from India, the other major producers include US, Brazil, Argentina and China. The five countries account for 95 per cent of the global soyabean production. Despite acreage under soya cultivation growing rapidly in India and China, they remain the largest importers of soya seeds and soya oil — their major source is Argentina and Brazil.

Almost the total soyabean production in India is crushed for meeting the soya meal demand, while 60 per cent of soya oil requirement is fulfilled through imports. Surplus soya meal is also exported to Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines and Korea.

Soyabean prices are largely depended on soya meal demand. Though 20 per cent of the production has been lost due to incessant rains in June, the recent rains have boosted the possibility of re-sowing. As on July 20, about 45 per cent of the seeds sown have bloomed compared to 26 per cent reported the previous week.

On the international front, prices on the Chicago Board of Trade are projected to trade with a downward bias due to anticipation of higher production. The exports from Argentina are expected to remain buoyant as the government proposal to hike export duty on farm products was rejected by the Senate recently.

On the demand side, China may slow down its soya product imports ahead of Olympics.

On NCDEX, soyabean futures have shed 3 per cent from Rs 2,705 a quintal on July 18 to Rs 2,612 a quintal on Friday.

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