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OECD signals sharper slowdown in top economies


Indicators

The latest data for major non-OECD economies tentatively point to a mixed picture

As for India, the Composite Leading Indicator has been decreasing in recent months


Our Bureau

Mumbai, Aug. 9 A sharper slowdown in major industrialised countries has been signalled by the latest OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI).

The June 2008 CLI indicates a continued weakening outlook for all the major seven economies (the US, the UK, Japan, Canada, France, Germany and Italy) in the OECD area.

The latest data for major non-OECD economies tentatively point to a mixed picture – expansion in China and Brazil, and downturn in India and Russia.

While the CLI for China remained unchanged in June 2008 and was 0.8 point higher than a year ago, the CLI for India fell by 1.5 points in May 2008, and was 4.4 points lower than in May 2007.

The long-term average for countries is 100. As for India, it has been decreasing in recent months and in May stood at 100.2; and the decrease above 100 is referred to as downturn. A decrease below 100 would be slowdown.

The OECD CLI is designed to provide early signals of turning points (peaks and troughs) between upswings and downswings in the growth cycle of economic activity. CLI provides qualitative information on short-term economic movements rather than quantitative measures.

Therefore, the main message of CLI movements over time is the direction up or down in the growth cycle.

When available, Indian economic data for June and July 2008 will indicate whether the economy has moved from downturn to slowdown.

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