The Hindu Business Line : Climate change and growth

The humungous cost of climate change can potentially pull GDP growth rates down. We need to take significant steps today to avert the disaster that climate change can cause.

First, it was the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and then the World Bank; now it is UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organisation) cautioning against the serious, adverse consequences that global warming and climate change entail for India. Scientists agree that tropical countries are more vulnerable to climate change than those in the temperate zone.

According to UNIDO, compared with those similarly situated, India’s risks are far greater because of geographical location, diverse demography and extremely high carbon-related energy dependence. The humungous cost of climate change can potentially pull the GDP growth rates down. As industrialisation advances, the environmental costs are sure to be high given the extant technology that relies heavily on fossil fuel. Already fragile and facing a stubbornly sluggish growth, agriculture may have to counter newer challenges in the form of extreme weather, unpredictable rainfall patterns as also more intense and frequent pest and disease attacks, all of which are sure to hurt yields and output over the medium-to-long term. Crops such as wheat and maize are already at the limit of heat tolerance. Even a small rise (1.5-2 degrees Celsius) in average temperature during the growing period can affect yields, and in turn compromise food security.

Among others, environment is sure to continue to remain a contentious issue in the global economic and trade policy negotiations, and hangs like the sword of Damocles over large economies such as India and China that need to take significant steps today to avert the disaster of climate change in the future. Policies that encourage adoption of eco-friendly technologies including exploitation of renewable energy sources should be put in place; and if need be, provided incentives for large-scale adoption. The country cannot afford to forego the natural resource of coal available in abundance; but adoption of ‘clean-coal technology’ is the way forward in order to contain the adverse effects of the polluting fossil fuel.

As for agriculture, adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be put in place. Land constraints and water shortage are already looming large. Heat-tolerant and moisture-stress resistant varieties of vulnerable crops need to be evolved. Agricultural biotechnology initiatives can help this effort but none needs to be under the illusion that Indian agriculture can be insulated from the effects of climate change without considerable investments in time, effort and technology. It is a challenge that must be met squarely given that a majority of the population still depends on farm incomes.

Related Stories:
Major economies agree cuts in global emissions necessary
Differences persist on how to respond to climate change
Nations under growing pressure to cut energy intake

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