The Hindu Business Line : Zardari climbs up a slippery slope

It remains to be seen if the Pakistani president, Mr Asif Zardari, shows the same regard for terrorist groups promoting conflict against India as Gen Musharraf did, or he is willing to challenge the army to change its policies, says G. PARTHASARATHY

When the then recently married Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari hosted a dinner for Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and Mrs Sonia Gandhi in Islamabad in 1988, Rajiv Gandhi came away with the impression that whereas Benazir appeared nervous about the ISI having bugged the room where she hosted her Indian counterpart, Asif Zardari struck him as a person who was relaxed and “without any hang-ups about India”.

This was before Benazir’s second term as Prime Minister, when Zardari assumed a higher profile and, rightly or wrongly, earned the reputation of being Pakistan’s “Mr Ten Percent”. Singapore’s senior statesman Lee Kwan Yew affectionately described Zardari as a “likeable rogue,” who dwelt at length on his expertise on “real estate and export deals”.

Whatever the truth about Mr Zardari’s alleged indiscretions, the fact remains that he suffered imprisonment and maltreatment by Mr Nawaz Sharif and Gen Musharraf with fortitude and dignity. He emerged with the charges against him still unproven.

Given the dynastic politics of the subcontinent, Mr Zardari assumed charge of the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) when Benazir was assassinated. He has since moved with consummate skill in outmanoeuvring (for the present) traditional rival Nawaz Sharif, dealing with contentious issues on restoration of members of the Judiciary ousted by Gen Musharraf and finally by ousting the unpopular Musharraf, in a manner that avoided rancour.

Crown of thorns

By getting himself elected President, however, Mr Zardari has adorned himself with a crown of thorns. He has assumed office when inflation is at 25 per cent and Pakistan’s present foreign exchange reserves of $5.7 billion are declining at around $1 billion monthly, accompanied by shortages of essential commodities and unprecedented power cuts.

More dangerously, the writ of the Pakistan Government has ceased to exist in virtually the entire North-West Frontier Province. One of Pakistan’s four Provinces is now under the control of radical pro-Taliban groups who have for long enjoyed the support of Pakistan’s powerful military establishment, spearheaded by the ISI. Terrorism regularly stalks the capital, Islamabad. Taliban influence extends to the virtual doorstep of Islamabad. Mr Zardari’s visit to New York, where he met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, was at a time of escalating tensions with Afghanistan, the US and its NATO allies. Despite Pakistani denials, there is clear evidence that the ISI has been providing shelter to the Taliban political leadership in and around the Baluchistan capital, Quetta, with the Taliban military leadership under figures like Jalaluddin Haqqani enjoying ISI patronage and support in the tribal areas of the NWFP.

The Pakistan army is unwilling to take on the challenge posed to Pakistani sovereignty in the NWFP by its Taliban protégés. Worse, while the Pakistan army may be adept in promoting terrorism and low-intensity conflict in India and Afghanistan, it is both unwilling and incapable of dealing with insurgencies on its own soil.

Balancing moves

When compelled to act, the army is guilty of using excessive force, including F-16 fighters and causing avoidable civilian casualties in its operations. Its soldiers are disinclined to fight their erstwhile protégés, regarding them as Ghazis. With the Urdu media echoing ISI propaganda and extolling the Taliban and groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Mr Zardari is finding that public opinion in Pakistan is averse to military action against terrorist groups. The Islamic parties and Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League will exploit these developments.

Mr Zardari has been compelled to balance moves to crack down on terrorists, by warning the Americans that they should not act militarily on Pakistani soil — a warning politely rejected by President Bush. American raids into Pakistan’s tribal areas are set to continue, whenever actionable intelligence necessitates such actions.

Mr Zardari also finds unrealistic and counterproductive the conventional wisdom propounded by the ISI and rabid newspapers such as the Nawai Waqt group that Pakistan should not promote Confidence Building Measures (CBMs), or trade and economic relations with India, till the issue of Jammu and Kashmir issue is resolved according to its wishes.

He has, therefore, favoured the approach adopted by Gen Musharraf in his last years in office, of promoting confidence building measures and seeking new ways to address the issue of J&K.

It, however, remains to be if Asif Zardari shows the same regard for terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba to promote low-intensity conflict against India, as Gen Musharraf did, or whether he is willing to challenge the army establishment to change its policies.

Gen Kayani and his colleagues will obviously be averse to giving up long-term policies of attempting to dominate Afghanistan and destabilise India, by using radical Islamic groups as a tool for achieving these objectives.

Even now, Gen Kayani is touting fears of Indian intentions on Pakistan’s eastern borders as an excuse for avoiding the deployment of more troops on Pakistan’s western borders with Afghanistan.

Confidence-building measures

It would be worthwhile for New Delhi to propose CBMs to make it clear to the world that India has no intention of taking advantage militarily of Pakistan’s need for larger deployments on its western borders. But New Delhi should be clear that in coming weeks, the ISI is going to spare no effort to disrupt elections politically and by use of militant groups, if elections are held soon in Jammu and Kashmir.

The various measures to promote trade and people-to-people contacts across the LOC in J&K and the international border, agreed to after the Zardari-Manmohan Singh meeting in New York are welcome. But one is shocked by the decision to discuss Pakistani involvement in the bombing of our Embassy in the ill-conceived “Joint Terror Mechanism.”

It is evident that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has chosen to give the ISI yet another opportunity to flatly deny any involvement in an in a terrorist outrage in which not only the Afghanistan Government, but US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, have collected enough evidence to establish direct ISI involvement.

Thanks to the Prime Minister’s ill-advised move, the tragic deaths of Brigadier Ravi Mehta, Counsellor Rao and two Jawans of the ITBP will be consigned to the pages of history, as yet another instance of Indian naiveté and pusillanimity. Surely, the least we should do is to insist that the Afghan Government and its US and its NATO partners should jointly act to declare the ISI an international terrorist organisation.

Pakistan’s policies of supporting radical Islamic groups are now coming to haunt Pakistan itself. What we are witnessing now is a progressive erosion of state authority by radical groups who were separately cultivated by the ISI to “bleed’ India and obtain “strategic depth” in Afghanistan. These groups now appear ready to join hands to challenge any Government in Pakistan that seeks to oppose their view of how Pakistan should be governed and conduct relations with the outside world.

In 2001 the National Intelligence Council of the US perceptively observed: “Pakistan will become more fractious, isolated and dependent on international financial institutions... Domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists who may significantly alter the make-up and cohesion of Pakistan’s military... In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the Central Government’s control will probably be reduced to the Punjabi heartland and the economic hub of Karachi”.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan. blfeedback@thehindu.co.in)

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