The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon withdrawal may be disrupted again

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 3 An incoming western disturbance is set to join an existing network of cyclonic circulations straddling the north and south of the country to decide on localised weather conditions.

This may have implications for the withdrawal schedule of the southwest monsoon, which is behind schedule by nearly a month. The withdrawal line has not made appreciable progress since last week.

Numerical weather prediction models indicate the approach of the western disturbance around the middle of next week to cause scattered precipitation over the western Himalayan region, an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

It traced a weather-causing a cyclonic circulation each to over west-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal off south Andhra Pradesh-north Tamil Nadu; east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining east Madhya Pradesh; west Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood; Madhya Maharashtra; east-central Arabian Sea off Goa-Karnataka; and Rayalaseema.

SPORADIC RAINS

These circulations have brought sporadic rains to Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, apart from other places in the rest of the peninsula during the 24 hours ending Friday morning. But Saurashtra, Kutch, Tamil Nadu, North Interior Karnataka and Kerala stayed largely dry.

An IMD forecast for the next 24 hours said rain or thundershowers are likely at few places over south Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada. Isolated thundershowers are likely over south Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha.

A warning valid for the next two days said isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya. The scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity the North-eastern States is forecast to continue until October 8.

Scattered precipitation is also likely over the western Himalayan region as the incoming western disturbance brings to bear its influence over weather in west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

STORMS DIE OUT

Tropical storms Mekkhala and Higos, two South China Sea storms tracked closely for prospects of regeneration in the Bay of Bengal have since become irrelevant over the adjoining Indo-China but not without a whimper.

Residual energy from these dying storms would likely have played a role in catalysing the formation of the maze of cyclonic circulations currently active over the country, meteorologists say.

Going forward, the till now-hyperactive South China Sea and Northwest Pacific may be heading into a stupor as a suppressed phase of convection blankets these water bodies.

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