The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon wets west coast, muses spread in central India

The monsoon was active over the west coast on Saturday as it plotted further spread over east and central India on Sunday. Contrary to expectations, the anchor ‘low’ didn’t materialise in northwest Bay of Bengal basin since the anticipated ‘spin’ at the lower level was found mostly wanting.

Still, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) thought conditions were favourable for further advance of monsoon over more parts of central and east India.

Among those to benefit in this manner over the next 2-3 days are Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and east Uttar Pradesh.

RESPITE FROM HEAT

This would also bring relief from heat wave conditions to parts of north Madhya Pradesh, north Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh and isolated pockets of west Uttar Pradesh over the next couple of days.

The northern limit of monsoon passed through Bhuj, Baroda, Indore, Hoshangabad, Rajnandgaon, Cuttack, Balasore, Bankura and Gangtok.

For the next two days, the IMD has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over the west coast, Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha.

And, the first three days of July would see the monsoon advancing into the remaining parts of central India and some parts of northwest India.

On Sunday, an offshore trough extended from north Konkan coast to Kerala coast. Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls has been forecast for the west coast during next three days.

MAY SKIP KERALA

But the core of the flows is directed to the north from Kerala, according to a six-day outlook maintained by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.

The IRI saw parts of east India, viz. coastal Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, too sharing the monsoon spoils wit the west coast during this phase. The strong flows over the Arabian Sea are projected to sustain during the first eight days of July, according to the European Centre of Medium-range Forecasts (ECMWF).

A pair of ‘low’s is forecast to spring up over to either side of the peninsula during this period, bringing further rains to the west coast, peninsular and central India. Parts of northwest India too are expected to receive the first few showers. July rain trends would prove crucial for Kharif crop prospects after June disappointed.

LIKELY RAINS

Meanwhile, an IMD forecast said that rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next 4-5 days.

Rain or thundershowers have been forecast also over interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Towards the west, rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over Konkan and Goa. Thundershowers are likely at many places over madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada. In central India, rain or thundershowers have been forecast at many places over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha. In the northwest, isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next 24 hours and increase, thereafter. Rain or thundershowers have been forecast at many places over Uttar Pradesh as well. Isolated rain or thunderstorm accompanied with squall is likely over the rest of the region, given the presence of a western disturbance.