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Business Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Tuesday, Jun 30, 2009 ePaper | Mobile/PDA Version | Audio | Blogs |
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Climate & Weather Agri-Biz & Commodities - Climate & Weather Web Extras - Outlook Rains may relent, but `break monsoon' ruled out 
Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram, June 29 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared the monsoon as having covered the entire central and east India in one fell swoop, besides venturing even into the northwest. This makes for coverage of huge ground during a five-day-period from its June-24 alignment linking Gujarat, south Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and coastal Orissa. Delhi would be reached around July 1 or 2, not far off from the June-29 normal. This would shave off at least 10-12 days from the significant lag discernible until the rains reached central India as recently as five days ago. NO BAY SUPPORT Normally, such massive spatial coverage in quick time becomes possible only when a major monsoon system (either a strong `low' or a depression) from the Bay of Bengal propels itself deep into the hinterland. But no such system has been on view till now in the Bay - if anything, a promising circulation in the higher levels in the atmosphere over the past few days hardly got the required lower level support off the Andhra Pradesh coast. Sustained rains in the region seem to have cooled down sea-surface temperatures denying the `spark' for the spin to materialise at the lower levels. The upper-air circulation has since veered off to over land towards east India. On the other hand, weather charts made available by the IMD showed that the westerlies from an incoming trough were mostly at play over northwest India. The ongoing precipitation is, therefore, best attributed to the dominant westerlies, which are shown by models to be interacting with hesitant easterlies to just outside Delhi's borders. EASTERLIES ABSENT Typical monsoon rains in northwest India assumes the presence of strong easterlies from the Bay of Bengal, which have been conspicuous by their absence till date. They get generated after a properly oriented and enduring monsoon system drops anchor in the northwest/Head Bay. Such a system may materialise around July 7/8 only, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. After `hitting Delhi', the monsoon would be temporarily in recess over the plains of northwest India till such time that this `low' shows itself up. Sparse rain events are likely over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the intervening period, but the monsoon would continue to be active over the west coast and central India. This would clearly go to rule out a `break monsoon' that some models are erroneously predicting for early July, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, expert forecaster and Adviser to the Department of Science and Technology. `Break monsoon' is the intra-seasonal break in the monsoon that leads to a `shut out' of the Arabian Sea flows. It takes the next big surge over the Arabian Sea (and not in Bay of Bengal) to revive the rains. This is exactly why a `break monsoon' is ruled for now, Dr Gupta told Business Line. "Here we have a situation where the Arabian Sea flows are strong, and a Bay `low' is in the offing - something that is absolutely contra indicative to break monsoon." And this Bay `low' promises to be the `real thing', capable of driving the till-now sulking monsoon beyond Delhi and bringing the `real monsoon rains' to northwest India. IN GOOD SHAPE According to Dr Gupta, the monsoon would continue to be in good shape until July 15, unleashing some of the most productive and enduring spells over the country's farming heartland. The IMD said in its update on Monday that the monsoon has advanced into entire Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand; many parts of east Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand; and parts of east Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh. The northern limit passed through Udaipur, Jaipur, Dholpur, Etawah, Lucknow, Kheri, Dehradun and Uttarkashi. Conditions are favourable for further advance to more parts of Rajasthan, remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, entire Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir during the next 1-2 days. An offshore trough running down from the north Konkan coast to Kerala coast would continue to drive widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls along the west coast during the next three days. Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls has been forecast over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the north eastern States during the next 3-4 days. Monsoon wets west coast, muses spread in central India Monsoon advances into Mumbai, south Gujarat Winds within Bay basin flag, hold up rains More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather | Outlook
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