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Sunday, Jan 19, 2003

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Outlook remains bleak

B. Krishnakumar

NIFTY (1086.5): After a mid-week recovery, the upward momentum was stalled on Friday. The market reaction to the quarterly performance of Wipro and the overnight decline at the American bourses could be critical factors influencing the market sentiment in the near term. The outlook for the index continues to remain weak with a move towards 1030-1040 range being the preferred view.

From a trading perspective, a move above 1092 could be used to take long positions while a drop below 1075 would warrant short position. Given the possibility of an increase in volatility, all positions would warrant a very close stop loss.

ITC (Rs 676.5): As anticipated last week, the scrip managed to move towards the target price of Rs 700. After touching a high of Rs 692.5, the share price of the company turned weak on Friday. The near-term trend in ITC appears weak. Existing holders could book profit while fresh buying may be avoided for the time being.

Hindustan Lever (Rs 177.7): There is an absolute lack of momentum in the scrip. The share price of the company is unable to make any sort of headway in either direction. Going by the recent price trend, the scrip could drift downwards in the near term. A drop below Rs 175 could be used to take short positions with a close stop loss in place. Fresh buying may be deferred.

Infosys Technologies (Rs 4,602): The price movement in Infosys was in line with last week's expectations. After moving close to the support level of Rs 4,000-4,100, the scrip staged a come back to close at Rs 4,602 on Friday. The near-term outlook for the scrip appears a bit weak. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 4,450. A drop below Rs 4,400 could be used to take short positions while a close above Rs 4,750 could be used to take long positions.

Satyam Computers (Rs 264.3): The scrip managed to rule above the bearish trigger price of Rs 255. The price movement in the next few days would determine the near-term trend in Satyam. A move above Rs 270 would have positive implications while a drop below Rs 254 would have negative implications. Existing holders could remain invested with a stop at Rs 255.

(Note: The analysis and opinions expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Analysis and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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