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Global rice trade to go up 2 mt: USDA

Our Bureau

MUMBAI, July 14

GLOBAL rice trade in 2001 is projected to increase by over two million tonnes to 24.4 m.t. as growing consumption contrasts with nearly flat to lower production for the world's top buyers. Demand is projected to rise among top importers in Asia, Africa and West Asia. Indonesia is expected to increase imports by 50 per cent and the Philippines by 25 per cent, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Import growth in Iran is estimated to jump by a third and Nigeria is forecast to break the one-m.t. import level for the first time. The two largest global suppliers, Thailand and Vietnam, were well positioned to capture over half of the world's growth in 2001 because of established trade relationships, USDA said.

Depressed world prices are having little impact on either global production or consumption, with the former only down one per cent to 593.6 m.t. (rough or paddy basis), the second highest on record, and the latter up marginally (0.5 per cent) to 401.5 m. t. Projected world consumption outpacing production would necessitate a slight stock drawdown to 60.8 m.t. worldwide, it said.

World wheat production is expected to be down to 581.2 m.t. in 2000-01 (down 4.5 m.t.) mainly due to smaller Chinese and North African crops, though the declines are partly offset by record crops in India and Pakistan.

Forecast consumption remains well above production, resulting in a third year of global stocks drawdown. However, any upward stimulus to prices will be mitigated by continued large stocks in the major exporting countries.

World coarse grains trade for 2000-01 is projected up to 100.3 m.t., the highest level since 1989-90. Higher world production (888 m.t.) is expected as bigger crops in the US, Argentina, Brazil and the European Union more than offset reductions in Easter n Europe and China. Growth in global consumption is expected to continue strong.