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Global wheat output seen rising

G. Chandrashekhar

MUMBAI, July 31

OVER the last month, as harvesting is in progress in the northern hemisphere and more detailed information becomes available, forecast of world wheat production in 2000-01 has been revised upward and is currently placed at 582 million tonnes (m.t.), acco rding to the London-based International Grains Council (IGC).

Production increase in Pakistan and India as also better weather results in Canada and the US have been neutralised by lower output in China and Iran following unfavourable weather conditions, IGC said. In 1999-2000, world wheat output was 583 m.t.

World wheat trade, on the other hand, is forecast to reach a record high of 105 m.t. thanks to higher import requirement of China and Egypt. At 595 m.t., world consumption will show an increase of 4 m.t., according to the IGC.

World coarse grain production and trade in 2000-01 are forecast to remain unchanged from the previous year at 880 m.t. and 105 m.t. respectively. Higher production prospects in the US have helped offset corn (maize) production losses in certain other ori gins. Consumption of coarse cereals worldwide will however expand by 5 m.t. to 886 m.t.

According to the IGC, on current indications, the international feed sector will be high competitive in 2000-01. With record corn crop in the US and weather damaged wheat there and in some other major producers which will be downgraded to feed quality, the market can expect fierce competition.

Feed use accounts for a major share of the world grain consumption. Current forecasts put feed use of all grain at 683 m.t. or 46 per cent of total consumption. The figure comprises 92 m.t. of wheat and 591 ml.t. of coarse grains, IGC said.