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USDA puts grains output at 1,868.9 mt

Our Bureau

MUMBAI, Aug. 16

FOLLOWING a significant improvement in the US grain production prospects that would more than offset declines elsewhere, world grains output for 2000-01 is slated to increase marginally. However, consumption is forecast to be higher than production, lead ing to a drawdown of stocks.

World grains (wheat, rice, coarse grains) production in 2000-01 is currently forecast at 1,868.9 million tonnes, up slightly from 1,866.1 m.t., the previous year, according to the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Aggregate US pro duction is forecast to reach a record 355.1 m.t. (previous year 332.6 m.t.).

World grains consumption, too, is forecast to reach a new high of 1882.6 m.t. in 2000-01, up 6.4 m.t. from the previous year, while world grains trade volume is expected to be 229.8 m.t., marginally up from 1999-2000.

Wheat: Specifically, global wheat output for 2000-01 was forecast down by 4.3 m.t. to 581.3 m.t. mainly due to smaller Chinese and North African crops, although the declines were partly offset by record crops in India and Pakistan, the USDA report said.

The forecast consumption at 594.4 m.t. remained well above production, resulting in a third year of global stocks drawdown. However, any upward stimulus to prices would be mitigated by continued large stocks in the major exporting countries, it said.

Rice: In the grains sector the only commodity to show some growth in global trade would be rice. For 2001, world rice trade is forecast at 24.4 m.t., up from 22.3 m.t. of the current year. This follows a higher import requirement projected for Indonesia (three m.t.) and Iran (1.6 m.t.).

World production of paddy in 2000-01 is placed at 592 m.t. (down from 599.3 m.t. in the previous year) with China accounting for half of the decline. Lower global production and record consumption (401 m.t.) will result in drawdown in global stocks.

Coarse grains: World coarse grains production in 2000-01 is forecast at 889.5 m.t., up 12 m.t. from the previous year as bigger crops in the US, Brazil and European Union more than offset reductions in Eastern Europe and China. Growth in global consumpti on is expected to continue strong (887 m.t.) with increases expected in Brazil, China and India apart from the US.