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Global oilseed trade set to fall

Our Bureau

MUMBAI, Nov. 15

WITH improved production prospects in major importing countries and small increase in aggregate world output, the global oilseed trade is poised to decline by six per cent in the current year. The decline will be accounted for mainly by soyabean and rape seed.

World oilseed trade for 2000-01 is forecast at 60.8 million tonne, down from 64.5 m.t. in the previous year, as per the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This follows a forecast reduction of 2.5 m.t. in soyabean and 1.2 m.t. of ra peseed imports by China.

US soyabean is sure to face competition from other origins, especially from Argentina and Brazil. Soyabean production in Argentina was expected to increase as growers reduce plantings of sunflowerseed, while in Brazil continued good weather was expected to help boost soyabean yields in the coming year, USDA said. A less than anticipated production of soyabean in the US -- 75.6 m.t. as per latest estimate -- could lead to a reduction in soyabean exports from that origin.

World output of major oilseeds is forecast at 302.5 m.t. for 2000-01. Of this, soyabean accounts for 166.4 m.t. (up 8.7 m.t. from the previous year), rapeseed 38.3 m.t. (down 4.3 m.t.), sunflowerseed 23.8 m.t. (down 2.6 m.t.), cottonseed 32.9 m.t. (33 m. t.) and groundnut 29.6 m.t. (29.2 m.t.).

World oilseeds crush is forecast to rise marginally to 249.6 m.t. in 2000-01 with a four m.t. increase in soyabean crush which will offset declines in rapeseed and sunseed crush. World ending stocks are projected to be lower at 28.4 m.t. (29.7 m.t.) due to drawdown of rapeseed and sunseed stocks during the year.

Production of major vegetable oils is forecast at a new high of 85.9 m.t. (84.7 m.t.) with one m.t. each higher contribution from palm oil and soyabean oil, but partially offset by reduction in other oils. World consumption is slated to increase by 2.5 m .t. to 85.8 m.t. Palm will account for 1.6 m.t. of the increase and move closer to soyabean oil.