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Mixed trend likely in global grain trade

Our Bureau

MUMBAI, Nov. 15

AS the global production conditions become increasingly clear, world grain trade is expected to present a mixed bag. In 2001, while the world rice trade is set to expand by about two million tonne, wheat and coarse grains trade is forecast to shrink by a bout three m.t. each.

In its latest report on the world grain market and trade, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected world rice trade for 2001 at 24.6 m.t., up 1.9 m.t. from this year. Rice exports from India are projected at 1.8 m.t. (1.3 m.t.).

World production of paddy is forecast to drop more than seven m.t. to 591.3 m.t. China's paddy output would decline by 3.5 m.t. to 195 m.t. and Pakistan's by 1.3 m.t. to 6.5 m.t., the report said. The ending stocks of rice are projected to decline by 3.5 m.t. to 59.1 m.t. In contrast, world consumption will rise only marginally to reach 401.2 m.t.

USDA has estimated the world wheat trade in 2000-01 at 105.9 m.t., down three m.t. from last year. US exports are expected to improve from last year due to reduced competition. Wheat exports from India are projected at one million tonnes based on Governm ent's decision to encourage exports of surplus stocks.

Global production placed at 579.9 m.t. (586.3 m.t.) is down largely because of a sharp drop of about 12 m.t. in China's production. World wheat consumption is forecast to increase marginally to 596 m.t., but is well above production for the third straigh t year resulting in a stocks drawdown of 16 m.t. to 111 m.t., the largest since 1994-95.

According to the USDA, world coarse grains trade in 2000-01 is projected at 100.9 m.t., down 2.5 m.t. from last year, with lower imports projected mainly for Brazil and Russia. World production is expected to drop sharply to 859 m.t. (875.8 m.t.) as bigg er crops in the US, Brazil and the European Union only partially offset reductions in Eastern Europe and China. Global consumption is expected to continue to grow to record levels (886.6 m.t.), while global carryout stocks are projected down almost 28 m. t. to a recent low of 137.8 m.t.