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USDA estimates global rice trade at 23.3 mt

G. Chandrashekhar

MUMBAI, Dec. 14

AN initial expectation of some improvement in global rice trade during 2001 is unlikely to come true as, on current reckoning, prospects for import into major markets are limited. Despite a decline in world production, small increase in consumption and d rawdown of stocks projected for next year, prices are likely to remain depressed.

Global rice trade for 2001 is projected at 23.3 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from the current year. While paddy production in 2000-01 is forecast to decline by 6.4 m.t., consumption will increase narrowly year-to-year by 2.2 m.t. and the ending stock s will be down by 2.1 m.t., according to the latest report on world grains market and trade published by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In particular, 2001 rice import demand by Indonesia is projected to be around 1.8 m.t. only as against an initial expectation of three m.t. and unchanged from the revised projected import of 1.8 m.t. for the current year. This follows a higher domestic c rop and the Government proclamation not to import till the end of the year.

In addition to the outlook for increased production in Indonesia, a depressed national currency and proposed trade-restrictive Government policies were expected to contribute to the deflated global rice market next year, USDA said.

Furthermore, 2001 imports into the Philippines, another major market, are likely to be seven lakh tonnes, lower than even the current year's import of nine lakh tonnes following an expected larger domestic production.

Global rice trade has remained depressed despite weak prices. Nominal price quotes for Asian milled rice have been virtually unchanged for the past three months and remain the lowest since early 1993. Therefore, exporting countries in Asia are likely to continue to offer cut-rate prices for all grades of rice.

According to USDA, rice exports from India would be about 1.3 m.t. in 2001 due to a drop in import demand and uncompetitive rices. The world rice market can be characterised as a buyer's market. Importing countries are expected to purchase on a `hand-to- mouth' basis as rice prices are expected to remain weak.

Wheat: World wheat trade in 2000-01 is estimated at 106.6 m.t., off 2.5 ml.t. from last year. Global production is down in large part because of smaller harvest in Australia, China, Kazakstan and the US. Bumper harvests among the major South Asian produc ers such as India and Pakistan will not only reduce their import needs, but also allow them to export.

Global consumption could be down slightly from the last year's 595.5 m.t., but it will be about 17 m.t. more than production. Supplies of quality wheat have tightened, but feed quality wheat is more abundant. US wheat exports are forecast at 30.5 m.t., o ne m.t. more than in 1999-2000.

Coarse grains: World coarse grains trade in 2000-01 is projected by USDA at 100.8 m.t. due to larger crops in several major importing countries, especially Brazil and Russia. World production is down three per cent as reductions in Eastern Europe and Chi na are only partially offset by bigger crops in the US, the EU and Brazil. Global consumption is expected to continue to grow to record levels and global carryout stocks are forecast to fall 25 m.t.

Specifically, global corn trade is projected to be off marginally, at 72.4 m.t. Largely because of reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe, US exports are projected to increase by over six m.t. to 62.7 m.t.

World barley trade was forecast to remain robust as the Mid-Eastern and North African demand continued strong. EU would remain the largest supplier, although Australia and Canada had larger export surplus, USDA said.