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Census 2001: Disturbing inter-State disparities

S.D. Naik

WHEN one looks at the broader picture presented by the first set of results on Census 2001, despite the frightening growth of population over the last decade, the overall demographic trend brings some good news.

The average annual population growth has declined to 1.95 per cent over the last decade from 2.16 per cent between 1981 and 1991; the literacy rate has jumped to 65.38 per cent from 52.21 per cent and the growth rate in literacy is higher for women; the sex ratio has improved to 933 females per 1000 males from 827 recorded in 1991. In fact, this is the first time in decades that the sex ratio has shown an improvement.

True, the rate of growth of population is still quite high considering the already high population base. The National Population Policy unveiled by the Centre last year assumes that the medium-term objective is to bring down the total fertility rate -- t he average number of children a woman bears in her lifetime -- to 2.1 by 2010 will be achieved.

But even this goal appears beyond reach with the annual population growth still in the region of 1.8 per cent against the earlier estimate of 1.6 per cent arrived at by the Registrar General. Even so, there is room for optimism looking at the broad trend s relating to improvements in literacy, sex ratio and per capita income levels.

What is really disturbing, however, is the widening inter-State disparity in the demographic indicators such as the population growth rates, literacy levels, and the sex ratio. For instance, Bihar, with a dismal record of human development indicators, re corded a much higher rate of population growth at 28.43 per cent against 23.38 per cent in the previous decade.

Similarly UP, the most populous State in the country, recorded a higher population growth of 28.43 per cent against 23.38 per cent during 1981-91. Haryana recorded a higher population growth of 28.06 per cent against 27.41 per cent.

Rajasthan also recorded a high rate of population growth at 28.33 per cent against 28.44 per cent in the previous decade. Some of the other States in the North and East have recorded much higher population growth rates. But these are much smaller States both in terms of area and population.

As against this, Kerala recorded the lowest decadal population growth rate of 9.42 per cent, followed by Tamil Nadu (11.19 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (13.86 per cent), and Goa (14.89 per cent). Karnataka recorded a growth of 17.25 per cent.

On the whole, it is seen that southern region leads the way in bringing down the population growth rate. It has witnessed the lowest population growth of 16 per cent during the past decade as compared to northern region's 30 per cent and western region's over 40 per cent.

As for literacy, Kerala continued its lead with 90.92 per cent followed by Mizoram (88.49 per cent), Lakshadweep (87.52 per cent), and Goa (82.32 per cent). Maharashtra also recorded a high literacy rate of 77.27 per cent.

As against this, Bihar recorded the lowest literacy rate of 47.53 per cent; the female literacy level in the State was much lower at 33.57 per cent. Incidentally, Bihar also happens to be the only State in the country with a literacy level below 50 per c ent.

Other States that figure at the bottom of the literacy list are Jharkhand (54.13 per cent), Jammu & Kashmir (54.46 per cent), Arunachal Pradesh (54.74 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (57.36 per cent), Orissa (63.61 per cent), Maghalaya (61.31 per cent), and And hra Pradesh 61.11 per cent).

In respect of sex ratio also, Kerala reported the highest of 1,058 women per 1000 men, while Haryana reported the lowest of 861, among major States. The record of UP, Bihar and Rajasthan is also not much better on this score.

In general, the southern States, which have been outperforming the northern and eastern regions in respect of economic growth, and per capita income, have also shown a better record in respect of population control, literacy and sex ratio.

A study sponsored last year by the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), and conducted by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) had shown that the economies of northern States had slipped badly in terms of economic growth during the nineties compared to their counterparts elsewhere.

The growing inter-State disparities in respect of population growth and various human development indicators do not augur well for the balanced development of the country and economic and social harmony. The fortunes of the entire country are closely lin ked with the economic and demographic performance of the laggard States.

The National Population Policy has drawn up a mix of positive and negative incentives with emphasis shifting to health, education of the girl child and family welfare. In addition to this, the proposed Technology Mission of the Department of Family Welfa re may have to play a pro-active role in providing a more focussed attention to the specific needs of economically and socially backward States.