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Population scene: Green and red signals

P. R. Brahmananda

THE Census Commissioner has released the provisional population figures for India for March 2001 -- 102.70 millions, with 53.13 million males and 49.57 million females. He takes credit for a reduction in the decadal growth rate of population during 1991- 2001 being 21.34 per cent as against 23.85 per cent during 1981-1991. The exponential growth rate of population per annum would be 1.95 per cent per annum during 1991-2001 as against 2.14 per cent per annum during 1981-91, and 2.22 per cent per annum dur ing 1971-81.

During 1991-2001, about 181 millions were added to the population size as against 162 million in 1981-1991. But what the Census Commissioner and most commentators miss is that the Planning Commission's expert group of population had placed the probable s ize of population in March 2001 at 101.24 million. It now transpires that the expert group had underestimated the probable size of population in 2001 by nearly 15 million. The implications of this are rather serious. During 1991-2001, the per annum semi log growth rate of population was 1.96 per cent. The population projectors had put the above growth rate at 1.79 per cent per annum. Just note what a difference this makes! The absolute under-estimation for 2001 would have been by about 8.7 per cent. To that extent, the per capita income for 2000-01 would be lower than the official figures. For example, at 1993-94 prices, the per capita annual national income at the projected population size would have been Rs 10,588. In terms of the actual population s ize, as now known, the per capita annual national income would be about Rs 9,846. Similarly, the proportion of people below the poverty line would have been much larger in the NSS estimates.

The density of population for 2001 was placed at 324 per sq km as against 267 in 1991. The density has increased by 21.3 per cent. This means that as against our limited and given natural resources, we are now increasing the pressure by 21.3 per cent. Th e sex ratio has slightly increased from 927 females per thousand males in 1991, to 933 females per thousand males in 2001. There are now 15.42 per cent persons in the 0-6 age group as against 17.44 per cent in 1991. Note that among males, 15.47 per cent are in the above age group in 2001, as against 17.28 per cent persons in the same age group in 1991. Among females in the above age group there were 15.36 per cent persons as against 17.76 per cent persons in 1991. The ratio of females to males in the ab ove age group is 927 persons per thousand males. Note that this would indicate a slight reduction in the `survival son preference propensity'.Noted economist, Prof Amartya Sen, would be happy at this provisional result.

An important development is that the literacy percentage is now placed at 65.38 as against 52.2 in 1991. Among males it is 75.85 per cent as against 64.1 per cent in 1991. And among females, it is 54.16 as against 39.3 in 1991.

According to information on the decadal growth rate of population, Kerala's is 9.42 per cent as against 14.32 per cent in the decade 1981-1991, denoting an exponential growth rate per annum of 0.9 per cent during the current census decade, as against 1.3 4 per cent the previous Census decade. The decadal growth rate for Tamil Nadu is 11.19 per cent during the current Census decade as against 15.39 per cent the previous Census decade. The exponential growth rate per annum of Tamil Nadu would be 1.07 per c ent as against 1.43 per cent the previous Census decade.

What is noteworthy is that Andhra Pradesh has witnessed a decadal population growth rate of 13.86 per cent as against 24.2 per cent in the previous Census decade. The exponential growth rate per annum in the current Census decade would be 1.31 per cent a s against 2.17 per cent in the previous Census decade. As one has pointed out repeatedly in Business Line articles, the women's movement is primarily the most important causal factor in Andhra Pradesh for this change. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar can learn fr om the Andhra Pradesh experience.

Uttar Pradesh's decadal rate of population growth is 25.80 per cent and the annual exponential growth rate 2.29 per cent as against the decadal growth rate of 25.55 per cent in the previous decade, and the exponential growth rate of 2.27 per cent. Note t hat there has been virtually no change in the demographic scene in UP. During 1971-1981 as well, the exponential per annum growth rate of population for the State was 2.29 per cent. The National Population Commission as well as Mr Mulayam Yadav, Ms Mayaw ati and Mr Kalyan Singh should ask themselves as to why the population scene is stagnant in UP. The entire BJP leadership as well as Mr V. P. Singh should also be blamed for the above. For Bihar, the latest decadal growth rate is 28.43 per cent as agains t 23.3 per cent the previous decade. The per annum exponential growth rate is 2.43 per cent for the 1991-2001 decade and for the previous Census decade, 2.11 per cent. The great Laloo, Nitish Kumar, Fernandes, should all be made responsible for the incre ase in the exponential growth rate of population in God-forsaken Bihar. Bihar seems unique in that it has allowed its exponential growth rate of population to go on increasing even in the face of so much demographic awareness in the world. For Haryana, t he decadal growth rate is 28.06 per cent as against 27.41 per cent the previous decade. The exponential growth rate per annum for 1991-2001 is 2.50 per cent as against 2.42 per cent in previous Census decade. Gujarat -- which had the highest income growt h rate during the 1990s, next to Maharashtra -- is unfortunately in the same group as UP, Bihar and Haryana, that is, the decadal growth rate in 1991-2000 is higher than that in the previous Census decade.

The exponential per annum growth rate during 1991-2001 in Gujarat is 2.05 per cent as against 1.92 per cent in the previous decade. Note that in Bihar the per capita real income has been falling during 1990s. But the exponential population growth rate ha s been rising. In Gujarat, the per capita real income has been rising at a high rate, but, even here, the exponential growth rate of population is increasing. Does income growth have any effect on population growth?

The National Population Council had identified only Uttar Pradesh as the State that would not achieve population stabilisation by the end of the present century. Now they have to revise their prediction and include Bihar and Gujarat as the three States t hat are not willing to achieve, on their own, population stabilisation. by the end of the 21st century, thanks perhaps to the political leaders in these States.

The opposition to the women's reservation Bill from the politicians of the above States, will mean they will lag in population growth containment for years to come. There is no reason why the enlightened politicians from other States should support the p oliticians of the above four States on this issue. So long as women are neglected in legislatures, it is difficult to bring up a women's movement similar to the one that has taken place in Andhra Pradesh. That rising incomes lead to reduction in populati on growth rate is the hypothesis sported by Indian demographers. The Gujarat experience points to the contrary.

In Maharashtra, the decadal growth rate of 22.57 per cent (25.73 per cent during 1981-91), and the exponential growth rate per annum of 2.06 per cent (2.21 per cent during 1981-91) are quite high. Maharashtra is partly in the North and partly in the Sout h! Madhya Pradesh's achievement is commendable, as its current decadal growth rate of 24.3 per cent is less than the 27.24 per cent of the previous decade. The exponential per annum growth rate in Madhya Pradesh is 2.06 per cent as against 2.38 per cent in the previous decade. The drop has been sizeable. Note that Madhya Pradesh has a large tribal component. Orissa has taken a lead even over Karnataka in that the current decadal growth rate is 15.94 per cent as against the 20.06 per cent of the previous decade. Orissa's exponential growth rate for 1991-2001 is 1.49 per cent (1.83 per cent during 1981-1991). We have now to exclude Madhya Pradesh from the BHIMARU group.

Rajasthan still remains in that group because the decadal growth rate is 28.33 per cent compared to the previous decadal growth rate of 28.44 per cent. The State's exponential growth rate is 2.53 per cent in 1991-2001 (2.50 per cent during 1981-1991). De mographically Rajasthan belongs to the same group as UP, Bihar and Haryana. Himachal Pradesh is an exception to the northern states. Its decadal growth rate currently is 17.53 per cent and exponential growth rate per annum 1.63 per cent whereas its decad al growth rate for 1981-1991 was 20.79 per cent and its exponential growth rate for that period was 1.89 per cent.

Punjab surprisingly has not shown much reduction in the decadal growth rate -- now 19.76 per cent as against 20.81 per cent in the previous decade. The State's exponential growth rate is 1.82 per cent in 1991-2001 as against 1.89 per cent in 1981-1991. K arnataka's decadal growth rate is 17.25 per cent as against 21.12 per cent in the previous Census decade. The exponential growth rate per annum is 1.60 per cent for 1991-2001 as against 1.92 per cent for 1981-1991.

Andhra Pradesh's demographic achievement is despite its female literacy rate (51.17 per cent) being lower than the national average of female literacy rate (54.16 per cent). Perhaps no other democracy of Andhra Pradesh's size has shown such a remarkable decline in population size in a decade. So far, Kerala figured prominently in our discussions. We must turn our attention now to Andhra Pradesh, which may not boast of Kerala's levels of development in the social spheres. Factors, such as female literacy are important but this has to go along with a consciousness and awareness among women about the need to control population growth.

Numeracy in the sense of John Stuart is more important than just female literacy. The enforcement of prohibition through women's movement is also, probably, an important factor. Karnataka lags in population growth control and here in this State, the gove rnments are merrily encouraging the popularity of liquor just to increase their revenues!

West Bengal's demographic achievement is also noteworthy; its decadal growth rate of 17.84 per cent is less than that during the previous decade of 24.73 per cent. The exponential growth rate in West Bengal for the current decade is 1.51 per cent as agai nst 2.21 per cent in the previous decade. This is an achievement Mr Jyothi Basu can be proud of. West Bengal was being rebuked earlier for not taking family planning seriously. But it appears in 1991-2001, it has redeemed itself.