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2001 Census: Encouraging and discouraging features

Ruddar Datt

INDIA accounts for a meagre 2.4 per cent of world surface area of 135.79 million sq km, yet it supports and sustains a whopping 16.7 per cent of the world population. In 1950, China, with 22 per cent share of the world population, was in the lead, follow ed by India, which had a 14.2 per cent share. It is now estimated that by 2050, India will most likely overtake China to become the most populous country on the earth with 17.2 per cent population living here. This is because in 1990-2000, China register ed a much lower annual growth of population at the rate of 1 per cent, compared to India whose population during this decade grew at the rate of 1.9 per cent.

India's population growth during the 20th Century can be classified into four phases:

1901-1921: Stagnant population

1921-1951: Steady growth

1951-1981: Rapid high growth

1981-2001: High growth with definite signs of slowing down.

There is no doubt that India has entered the fifth phase of demographic transition in the 21st Century, which is usually characterised by rapidly declining fertility.

It has been assumed by the policy-makers that the medium-term objective of bringing down the total fertility rate (TFR) to the replacement level of 2.1 by 2010 will be achieved. It is envisaged that if the NPP is fully implemented, the population should be 1,013 million by 2002 and 1,107 million by 2010. It will no doubt require a Herculean effort on part of the government and the people to achieve the much cherished goal of a stable population.

There is no doubt that India's population has been growing consistently, but between 1951 and 1981, the growth rate was very high -- rising from 1.96 per cent per annum during 1961 to 2.22 per cent in 1981. Thereafter, the rate of growth, though still hi gh, has shown signs of decline. In 1981-94, the annual average rate of growth came down to 2.14 per cent and during 1991-2001, it fell further to 1.93 per cent. In absolute terms, in 1991-2001, India added nearly 180.6 million persons, which was larger t han the addition during the 1981-91 decade of 163.1 million by 17.5 million.

State-wise population

Uttar Pradesh with its population of 166 million, is the most populous state of the country. Its population is more than that of Pakistan (156 million), the sixth most populous country in the world. Seventeen States with a population of more than 20 mill ion each account for a total population of 969 million -- 94.7 per cent of the total population of India. Five States -- Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh -- account for a total population of 499 million -- 48.5 per cent o f the total population of India.

States were ranked according to the average annual growth rate of population during 1991-2001. Kerala stands at the top with population growth rate reaching a level of 0.9 per cent, followed by Tamil Nadu (1.06 per cent) and Andhra Pradesh (1.30 per cent ). Strangely enough, Orissa -- a relatively poor State -- has shown a better record of population planning and indicated a population growth rate of 1.48 per cent. Other States which are below the national average are Karnataka, West Bengal, Chhatisgarh, Assam and Punjab. All the nine States which indicate a lower population growth rate than the national average account for a total population of 408 million or nearly 40 per cent of the country's population.

On the other hand, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan and Bihar show a higher growth rate than the national average of 1.93 per cent. In the high population growth rate category, there are economically bett er-off States such as Gujarat, Maharashtra and Haryana. On the other hand, relatively poor states, such as Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar, show high population growth rates. The total population of the States in group B is 561.2 milli on -- 54.6 per cent of the total population in 2001. These States accounted for 62.9 per cent of the total population increase in the 1991-2001 decade.

An encouraging feature of the data provided by Census 2001 is that nine States (Group A) have already set the trend towards a definite decline in the population growth rate. The rate of growth in these States accounts for nearly 40 per cent of the total population of India.

However, a discouraging feature of the data provided by Census 2001 is that eight states show a high growth rate. The combined rate of growth of the population of these States is 2.28 per cent. Among these States are both economically better-off and poor er states. The discouraging aspect of the situation is that these States account for nearly 55 per cent of the country's population.

Mr Banthia, after reviewing the growth rates of population from the decade 1951-61 in the major States of India states: ``It took four decades even for Kerala to reach a decadal growth rate of less than ten per cent from a high growth rate of 26.9 per ce nt during 1961-71. Tamil Nadu also took 40 years to reduce its growth from a high of 22.30 per cent in 1961-71 to 11.19 per cent in 1991-2001. The growth rate in Bihar showed an upward swing in 1991-2001 and the growth rates in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh a nd Madhya Pradesh are now at a level where Kerala and Tamil Nadu were 40 years ago. Even if it takes four decades for these four States to reach the present level achieved by Kerala and Tamil Nadu, it seems it would be difficult for India to achieve a st able population by 2045. Therefore, it is imperative that some path-breaking initiatives are taken in reversing the trends of growth in these States, which at this stage do not show signs of abatement.

Child population (0-6 age group) and population growth rate

A decline in the proportion of child population in the 0-6 age group broadly indicates a fall in fertility, since child population is not affected by inter-State migration. In India, the proportion of children in the age group 0-6 fell from 17.94 per cen t in 1991 to 15.42 per cent in 2001. Table 3 gives the proportion of child population in 1991 and 2001 in 17 major States of India. Group A States are those in which growth rates of population have been declining faster than the all-India average, and Gr oup B States are those in which growth rates have been observed to be higher than the all-India level. The Census Commissioner (2001) observes in this regard: ``Simple correlation coefficient between growth rate and proportion of child population in the age group 0-6 in case of major States (with population of more than 30 million) for 1991 and 2001 works out to he +0.78 and +0.92 respectively. There is a strong positive relationship between the growth rate and child population in the age group 0-6.

Density of population

An important index of population concentration is its density measured as number of persons per square kilometre. As per the Census 2001 figures, the population density in India in 2001 is 324 persons per sq km against 267 in 1991. It implies that now 57 more persons live in a sq km area than a decade ago.

Among the Union Territories, Delhi has the highest density of 9,294 persons per sq km followed by Chandigarh with density of 7,903. Among the States, West Bengal, Bihar, Kerala and Uttar Pradesh have very high density. However, States in the North East - - Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura and Meghalaya have low density. Similarly, the western region -- Gujarat, Daman and Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Maharashtra -- also have relatively lower density, averaging 293 per sq km. Likewise, Jamm u and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan in the Northern Region are low density areas.

The average density of population in the world, according to the World Development Report (2000-2001) is 46 persons per sq km in 1999. The high income countries have an average density of 29, middle-income countries have a density of 40 and low income co untries have an average density of 73. By world standards, India can be classified as one of the most high-density countries of the world. It is a case of expanding population and shrinking earth, and it calls for population stabilisation so that undue p ressure is not put on its natural resources to support the rising population.

Sex composition of population

Sex ratio is defined as the number of females per 1,000 males in the population. It is an important indicator to measure the extent of prevailing equity between males and females as a given point of time. It may be noted that India has a low sex ratio of 933 females per 1000 males in 2001. In 1991, the sex ratio was 927. There has been a slight improvement, but compared to other countries the situation is disappointing.

According to the Census Commissioner: ``It is interesting to note that sex ratio in the US, Indonesia, Russian Federation and Japan has always remained above unity for the last half of a century... In the US, it has shown an improvement from 1002 to 1029 in the last 50 years. Bangladesh has shown a continuous improvement in its sex ratio from 880 in 1950 to 953 in 2000. Pakistan and China have also shown an improvement. Thus, among the major nations of the world, India is the only exception.''

There was a continuous decline in the sex ratio up to 1971 and it was 930 in 1971. Subsequently, it has been fluctuating around 930 during the last 30 years.

Some of the important reasons put forward to explain sex ratio are neglect of the girl child; high maternal mortality; sex-selective female abortions; and female infanticide.

Indian States indicate wide variations in the sex ratio. Those responsible for the poor sex ratio are Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. The States which have shown signifi cant improvement in sex ratio are Goa, Karnataka, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Chhatisgarh and Kerala. The only State that has consistently shown a sex ratio of more than unity is Kerala. Unless there is an improveme nt in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Bihar and Maharashtra, the chances of improvement in the country's sex ratio remain bleak.

State of literacy

Literacy has been treated as an important indicator of social development. For the purpose of the Census, a person who can read and write with understanding in any language is treated as literate. In 1991-2001, the overall literacy rate improved from 2.2 per cent in 1991 to 65.4 per cent in 2001 -- up 13.2 per cent. The male literacy rate improved from 64.1 per cent in 1991 to 75.8 per cent in 2001 -- an increase of 11.7 per cent, and the female literacy rate improved from 39.3 pet cent in 1991 to 54.2 per cent in 2001 -- up 14.9 per cent. Thus, the increase in literacy rates observed in 1991-2001 in respect of persons -- males and females -- have been the highest recorded in comparison to earlier decades since 1951, except in the case of males in 1951 -61. This augurs well for the country. There is a need to sustain and strengthen this trend so that the goal of universal literacy is achieved within the next two or three decades. This will, however, require greater effort to improve female literacy, wh ich is still lagging behind. The gap between male and female literacy has to be bridged.

State-level profile of literacy rates

Regarding the literacy rates of the major States, Kerala continues to be at the top with 94.2 per cent male literacy and 87.9 per cent female literacy. Bihar records the lowest literacy rate -- 60.3 per cent in the case of males and 33.6 per cent in the case of females. It is heartening that a tribal State such as Mizoram recorded 90.7 per cent male literacy and 86.1 per cent female literacy.

States where the female literacy rate is lower than 50 per cent are Rajasthan (44.3 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (44.2 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (43 per cent), Jammu and Kashmir (41.8 per cent), Jharkhand (39.4 per cent) and Bihar (33.6 per cent).

The States with literacy rates below the national average are Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and Arunachal Pradesh.

An encouraging feature of Census 2001 is the sharp growth in overall literacy rates observed in the 1991-2001 decade, but a discouraging feature is that six major States have female literacy rates even below 50 per cent. There is a need to strengthen fem ale literacy measures in these States.