The Hindu Business Line : `Media is a game of gut feel'

India is the most complex media market in the world, says L. V. Krishnan, CEO, TAM Media Research. With 250 channels beaming into 108 million households, Krishnan says media planners have a tough job on hand.

Krishnan says there are numerous factors a media planner should keep in mind when placing a product in a particular TV channel, given the intense fragmentation in the media. "It could be basic environmental factors such as satellite transponder failure or even climatic changes which could impact viewership trends. The viewership of news channels, for instance, went up dramatically during the deluge in Mumbai. The coverage of a popular festival could also impact viewership. Sahara Samay Mumbai, which has a daily viewership share of seven per cent, saw it step up to 33 per cent for its coverage during Janmashthami."

"A lot also depends on the number of TV sets a particular home has. While most families prefer to watch general entertainment channels on their living room set, the older members prefer to watch a channel such as Sanskar TV in their bedroom. The viewership of sports channels goes up dramatically in a city such as Hyderabad on a day Sania Mirza plays. Similarly, the share of news channels goes up substantially during late night crime shows. Media planners need to have a feel of the various variables to be successful," he says.

In an interview with Catalyst, Krishnan speaks about the rapidly evolving media scene, and TAM's focus on monitoring it. Excerpts:

How has the media scene evolved over the years?

When I came into this industry a decade ago, media was just about buying and planning. In fact, media buying was just coming in, and there were hardly any channels to give media a fillip. But 10 years down the line, the intense fragmentation of the media has created a lot of differentiation. We find people selling space, air time and a variety of other activities. A media planner today, to be successful, has to be a strategist, a gambler and an astrologer. One has to be a strategist and ensure that he/she takes the right step, and a gambler, because it is a game of gut feel. Every card has a 50:50 chance. You always never win and you always never lose.

But from a consumer's point of view, there is no such media differentiation. A consumer doesn't care from where he gets the breaking news. Whether it is from the TV or his mobile phone, it really doesn't matter to him. Consumers only look for content and are not really bothered about the media. The media differentiation is more an industry viewpoint. With Direct To Home (DTH) making inroads, is the future of cable operators at stake?

Though DTH will enable consumers to view a variety of channels at a much cheaper price, the cable operators will not keep quiet. They will change their infrastructure. For instance, if the proposed unified licensing system comes into being, it will enable cable operators to provide telephony along with video. The industry is also looking at introducing 3G technology in telephones, which allows live streaming of TV content on the mobile phones. This could be yet another source of revenue for the cable operator. DTH would probably take over the cable operators initially, but in the long run there will be good competition between the two.

What, according to you, is a matter of concern in the media scene today?

The major problem today is that even though the industry is growing, there's a huge segment of population which continues to be in media darkness and has access only to primitive forms of media. There are 450 million TV homes, 208 million cable and satellite homes and around 60 million homes having access to mobile phones. But there is a lot of duplication of content. The entire growth is coming from a fragmented audience of around 250 million people, which is concentrated in cities and towns. There is no expanded communication. Almost 90 per cent of the advertising industry's spends, which are close to Rs 118 billion, is focused on this fragmented segment.

What should the industry do to bridge the gap?

Media and marketing companies should appeal to the Government to chalk out an agenda to invest in the rural markets, so that the entire rural market could be converted into investment potential. Companies such as Eureka Forbes and ITC have already made substantial efforts, but what is required is a common platform. Once the togetherness comes in and the returns start coming, even TAM will monitor the investments made by the marketing companies and media companies.

What will be TAM's strategy?

With the media focus centred on urban areas, our focus would also be on measuring the further fragmentation in these areas with the advent of digital media. We are in expansion mode, and in the first phase, we are looking at increasing the number of people-meters from 4,500 to 7,500. We are putting up a digital set-up at our monitoring centre in Baroda to monitor over 200 television stations. The first half of 2006 will see the release of the elite panel. This is in sync with our focus on the fragmented market. The media consumption among the elite is even more fragmented.

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