The Bay of Bengal is bracing to host a depression early in the New Year, but it would be likely of no consequence to India save the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Consensus forecasts take the depression towards Myanmar over the next two to three days. On Thursday, a preparatory low-pressure area lay in wait over the South Andaman Sea.

Snow, rain in North

The India Met Department (IMD) has forecast rough seas and squally winds around the islands for the next five days with the accompaniment of heavy to very heavy rain.

This came amidst a heavy weather alert over the mainland as parts of North-West India started witnessing rain in the plains and heavy snowfall over the hills of the Himalayas.

A wet spell is already on along western Himalayan region and adjoining plains Tuesday, which is expected to last into the weekend.

This is good news for the rabi crop, though farmers may also have to contend with the danger of hailstorms ripping through depending on the strength of the ruling weather system.

Western disturbances

The immediate provocation for the unfolding weather is back-to-back movement of weather-generating western disturbances in quick succession across the area.

Western disturbances are the principal weather-makers during the winter for most of North-West India, East and North-East India, and even parts of Central India. They originate from the Mediterranean/Caspian seas and travel to the East across South-West Asia and West Asia crossing Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan before crossing the border into India.

One such disturbance is already active over North-West India while another, a more potent one, is waiting over North-East Afghanistan.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says that an upper air circulation let loose by this system will keep weather active over North-West India into early next week also.

Rainfall alert

It also ventured to predict the arrival of another deep western disturbance into North-West India during the two to three days that follow. The presence of moisture in the system ensures warmth and helps to lift the night-time temperatures though associated clouds can pull down daytime mercury levels.

The IMD has forecast scattered to widespread rainfall/snowfall over western Himalayan region (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) during the rest of this week until Saturday.

Isolated to fairly widespread rainfall is likely adjoining plains (Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan) during this period with intensity peaking on Friday and Saturday.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall/snowfall has been forecast at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on both these days.

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