Prospects of the upcoming kharif crop harvest have taken some beating following deficient rainfall in parts of the country in the last four weeks. Crop yields are likely to be hurt and harvest size is expected to fall below the season’s production target. This, in turn, can increase the upward price pressure on food commodities, on top of a spike in the consumer price index in August.

Specifically, planted acreage for coarse grains ( maize) and pulses (tur/arhar) has fallen below last year’s level. Tur/arhar acreage is down by 9-lakh hectares from last year’s record 52.2-lakh ha.

Oilseeds, too, have performed poorly, with aggregate planted area down to 169.2-lakh ha (187.2 lakh ha). Soyabean is the worst hit with a decline of 10-lakh ha, followed by groundnut, which is down by 6-lakh ha.

It is a matter of consolation that the area under cotton has expanded by about a fifth to 121-lakh ha (102-lakh ha), while sugarcane has been planted in 49.9-lakh ha, higher than the drought-affected 45.6-lakh ha of last year.

Rainfall distribution

Importantly, it is not just lower planted acreage, but aberrations in rainfall pattern – in terms of spatial and temporal distribution – that is likely to adversely affected yields.

As of September 6, eight of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions covering Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Kerala and also Vidharba in Maharashtra, are in deficient category, with some more on the borderline.

This is sure to hurt the already low crop yields, as a result of which the kharif 2017-18 production targets may not be realised. While the target for maize production is 190-lakh tonnes, the actual harvest may turn out to be about 5 per cent lower at about 180-lakh tonnes.

Pulses, too, face the same challenge of a decline in yields and harvest size. Harvest is sure to fall below the target of 87.5-lakh tonnes; but tur/arhar output is set to decline by about a fifth to 40-lakh tonnes. Combined with restriction on import, tur/arhar prices have already climbed by a fourth to around ₹4,500 a quintal, but still well below the minimum support price of ₹5,450 quintal.

Output target

The production target for kharif oilseeds is 254-lakh tonnes and the decline in planted area this season is about 10 per cent overall. Soya output may decline to 110-120-lakh tonnes (138-lakh tonnes) and groundnut in-shell to 50-55-lakh tonnes (62.2-lakh tonnes). This will further aggravate the already wide shortfall in domestic vegetable oil production and worsen the import dependence.

The highly promising cotton, too, has got diluted because of moisture stress across the principal growing regions. It would be a matter of satisfaction if we are able to reach the production target of 355-lakh bales (170 kilograms each) vis-à-vis last year’s 331-lakh bales.

In sugarcane, too, yields are likely to be affected because of inadequate precipitation. Cane is a water-intensive crop. Actual harvest may fall short of the target of 355mt , aggravating the already fragile sugar demand-supply situation.

Given this, upward price pressure for food commodities is sure to escalate. It is important for policymakers to take cognizance of the emerging situation and take steps to ensure that the interests of growers and consumers are not compromised.

The writer is a global agribusiness and commodities market specialist. Views are personal

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