The unusually high temperatures and the delay in arrival of pre-monsoon or blossom showers could shrink the robusta coffee crop for the 2016-17 season, starting October.

Growers in the key regions of Coorg and Chikmagalur are concerned over the delay in pre-monsoon showers, crucial for blossoming of the coffee floral buds, and fear that it could impact robusta output by up to a fourth.

Blossom showers and subsequent backing showers are crucial for a good crop. Traditionally, the robusta and arabica areas should receive pre-monsoon showers by March 15 and April 15, respectively, for a good blossom.

“The blossom shower has been very sporadic and scanty this year and it is definitely going to affect the crop, both robusta and arabica,” said Baba PS Bedi, Chairman of the Karnataka Planters’ Association.

“Small growers, who cannot afford to take up sprinkler irrigation, are going to be hit hard,” Bedi said, adding that the planters’ association will soon urge the State government to take up cloud seeding to create artificial rain in the key growing regions.

Water crisis

Though most of the robusta area is irrigated, with growers deploying sprinklers to irrigate their estates without waiting for the blossom showers, the lack of sufficient water storage this year has turned out to be a cause for concern.

Two back-to-back droughts triggered by successive deficient monsoons have created water stress thereby affecting the availability for irrigation, Bedi added.

“The delay in blossom showers and the prevailing unusually high temperatures across all the growing regions is a real cause of worry. It will have a significant impact on the crop loss, but it is too early to quantify the impact,” said Y Raghuramulu, Director of the Balehonnur-based Central Coffee Research Institute (CCRI).

The Coffee Board is expected to take up crop assessment sometime in mid-May.

In addition, the depleting shade pattern in some areas is aggravating the problem this year, Raghuramulu added.

“The situation is terrible in South Coorg. With temperatures ruling 2-3 degrees higher than normal, there is a fear of coffee plants dying in some areas,” said N Bose Mandanna, a planter in Suntikoppa, near Madikeri. About 30 per cent of the robusta area is impacted by the delayed rainfall, he added.

“The overall situation is not comfortable. Though it has rained in some pockets, the quantum of rainfall is not sufficient. The water stress and high temperatures will affect the blossom, thereby impacting the crop,” said Nishant Gurjer, a planter in Chikmagalur.

Plants under pressure

Another factor that could affect the output this year is stressed out plants. “In the last two years, we have been picking some good crop. As a result, the plants are relatively stressed and the output could be impacted,” Gurjer added.

The Coffee Board has estimated the 2015-16 crop’s output at 3.5 lakh tonnes, a 7 per cent increase over the previous year’s 3.27 lakh tonnes.

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