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El Nino conditions in the Equatorial and East Pacific continue to remain strong but are on the mend, according to the latest update from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Based on the 26 El Nino events since 1900, around 50 per cent have been followed by a neutral year, and 40 per cent by La Nina (the alter ego of El Nino, with exactly opposite implications for regional weather).
Neutral stateModels suggest the neutral state is most likely for the second half of 2016, followed by La Nina, with a repeat El Nino assessed as very unlikely.
This would suggest that the 2016 Indian monsoon is likely to coincide with neutral conditions in the Equatorial Pacific, which is believed ‘next best’ to La Nina in terms of expected favourable impact.
La Nina has in the past been associated with normal to above normal monsoon, though not always. There is no direct cause-effect relationship between the two either.
Given this context, it would be interesting to watch how the 2016 summer pans out over North-West and adjoining Central India.
Heating patternBelow-par heating of the plains has been viewed as coming in the way of normal play-out of the monsoon, thanks to its detrimental influence on wind strength and atmospheric pressure.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says in earliest outlook that the northern-most parts of North-West India and adjoining Gangetic plains would see normal heating during February-March-April.
The Met subdivisions covered here are Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and North-East India.
Excess heat will be confined to over Central India and Peninsular India with associated heat waves.
Even here, West Madhya Pradesh may prove relatively less hot, according to the European Centre.
Normal rainMarch-April-May too is likely to see similar conditions panning out with top heat slowly invading the fringes of the Met subdivisions in North-West India and along the Gangetic plains.
April-May-June, which sees peak summer leading to the monsoon, might see the top heat revert to Central India and the South Peninsula.
As for rain forecast for the period referred above, the European Centre is of the view that most regions would witness normal rainfall right from February into June.
May-June-July, which witnesses the onset and progress of the monsoon, will normal to above normal rain over the South Peninsula with the Bay of Bengal driving excess rain.
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