Two years of sub-par monsoon in India have affected the livelihood of people and increased level of hunger in the country. Farm-level distress has hurt the poor farmers the most. International Food Policy Research Institute Director-General Shenggen Fan tells BusinessLine that with right policy, investment and technology, India can prevent another such crisis. Excerpts:

How do we ensure that India does not face another livelihood and food crisis when monsoons fail again?

The Global Food Policy Report 2016 has highlighted how the small farmers would be affected by climate change, extreme weather events here in the region. Because of climate change, monsoons have become unpredictable. This trend of events will continue and the frequency will become even greater in future. We need to design our policy strategy and our food system to reduce our vulnerability to these shocks. If monsoon comes late, how do we make sure the crops can be planted later and still have a good crop. Certain crops can still be grown in shorter growing period, and still produce a good crop. That’s one approach.

Another approach is to diversify our crop away from rice, wheat and maize because these crops are heavily dependent on monsoon. But, vegetables and fruits and some others are not. Even some of the greenhouse produce do not depend on monsoon at all. That’s the diversification we need to do.

There are many other methods. One is insurance. If there is a weather shock, farmers can be compensated through insurance or any disaster relief. In the longer term, we need a good model to predict weather pattern. If the monsoon is delayed every year, then it will become the new normal. Then, we need to design our crop production, food production based on this new normal. We need to make sure that farmers can become more resilient to many shocks. We need to invest in irrigation. Certain crops can tolerate drought. Newer varieties can tolerate drought and floods and grow in shorter period.

India uses MSP to incentivise farmers to grow certain crops. Do you think India should continue with MSP or find other ways to make farmers move away from rice and wheat?

I think the price support is very costly, not easy to implement. We should get away from that. I would prefer a strategy which encourages farmers to diversify their crops and thereby reduce their risks, whether it is surprise risk, climate risk or market risk. So, you may lose on rice but you may gain in other crop. But, to do that, the government should move away from purely supporting one or two crops such as rice and wheat; everybody will produce that crop and then the farmer will become more vulnerable.

But India has MSP for over 20 crops. Yet, many farmers still grow cereals…

There are a couple of reasons for that. One, it is part of tradition, they are used to growing cereals. These farmers think rice and wheat are food, nothing else. That mindset needs to change. Second, despite the government statements, there are still many policies which are anti non-staple crops, whether it is price support, whether it is research investment, whether it is insurance. You can’t just make statements. You have to do it with budget allocation, research and price support.

Third, in the short-term, it is difficult to change the mindset, change the policy. In the longer run, as long as we pursue consistent strategy of diversification, of policy, of research, and communication, we can have more diverse food produced and that way ensure farmers consume more diverse foods. That will be good for their nutrition. You should not give up after a year or so, assuming nothing has changed.

Pulses production has not increased substantially despite big increases in their MSP a few years ago. Part of the reason is sub-par monsoon…

That’s why you need long-term perspective. Farmers respond to price changes in the long run, not in one season. There are so many constraints. Farmers’ response depends on other types of policy and investments — infrastructure, technologies. Otherwise, it will become like a spider web. One year they produce more in response to higher price and then the following year, prices go down and if they continue to produce, they will lose money. What is crucial is long-term price stability — not necessarily in subsidies but through mechanisms such as reserves and value chains.

You have said subsidies need to be phased out. But, in India’s case, most farmers are small. Can they survive without subsidies?

I have two recommendations. One, convert those subsidies into income support. Farmers need income — either from higher prices or from direct income transfer. Farmers would prefer direct income transfer. If the farmer gets direct income transfer, they will use the market to decide their production. They will optimise the use of inputs. To me, that’s a much better than subsidy. Subsidies are distorting.

Second, gradually eliminate subsidies on wheat and rice and use them to support nutritious food production such as pulses, fruits, vegetables and dairy. Third, also use money saved from eliminating subsidies for cereals to support value chains. For fruits and vegetables, value chains are very important for harvesting and transportation to reduce wastages. Wastages are also a reason why farmers are reluctant to move away from traditional crops.

By 2030, the terminal year for achieving Sustainable Development Goals, India may emerge as the most populous country. Providing food for that population will be a huge challenge. How should the government tackle this?

From now to 2030, the country must produce at least 50 per cent more food. There are challenges — climate is changing and water is scarce. But, there are opportunities as well. One is technology. The country must continue to invest in agriculture research to produce more with less. The yield can be increased. India’s investment in agriculture research as a percentage of its agriculture GDP is about one-third of China’s. That’s not acceptable. If you do not invest, where do you get new technologies? Instead on focusing on rice, wheat and maize, you should focus on other crops. Infuture, people’s demand for rice and wheat will decrease as incomes increase. India doesn’t need to produce everything.

You can export some and import some. Food security and nutritional security do not mean self-sufficiency. India does not have a food security problem, it has a policy problem.

comment COMMENT NOW