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A monsoon depression has formed over South Odisha on Wednesday as the previous day’s well-marked ‘low’ crossed the coast and intensified over land.
The rare depression late in the season promises a sustained spell of heavy to very showers for East India, North Peninsular India, Central India and West India over the rest of the week.
May intensify In fact, model predictions, including by the India Met Department, sees the depression largely keeping its strength as it marches over east Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.
The odd prediction goes on to suggest it might undergo another round intensification over land as it approaches the Arabian Sea. This is likely to happen over western Maharashtra.
Forecasters are not ruling out potential for further ‘mischief’ since the projected path would take the system for a run-in with a cyclonic circulation each over north-west Madhya Pradesh and the Kutch area.
If this were to happen, this would lead to a flare-up over the Kutch from the combine, following which it would split yet again into two and head off tangent from each other.
While the bigger of the two is seen ploughing into the deserts of west Rajasthan, the smaller remnant would slip out into north-east Arabian Sea and push away.
Heavy rain forecast In this manner, Wednesday’s depression might be able to deliver moderate to heavy rainfall from to East India, Central India, West India, and North-West India, in that order.
The US Climate Prediction Centre more or less agrees with this outlook. In fact, it sees the wet spell being sustained for a second week that ends September 28, thanks to latent activity in the Bay of Bengal.
Though late in the season to be of any significant gains to the kharif cop, the rains through the week will help improve water levels in the reservoirs over the North Peninsula, Central India and West India.
The overall rain deficit for the country as whole is unchanged from Tuesday at 16 per cent. North-West India and Central India, the worst hit, share 20 per cent each.
The deficit is 15 per cent over South Peninsula and seven per cent over East and North-East India. The ongoing rains may not bring about a drastic change in the deficit scenario during this last month of the monsoon.
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