Scattered to isolated rain is the forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep for the the next four days even as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telanagana will stay dry.

A trough of lower pressure in the South-West Bay of Bengal (off the Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts) is the lone meteorological feature seen driving the off and on showers over parts of the South.

Rain deficit

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts, the rain-carrying trough would come back into the reckoning back to back towards the last week of the month (and the year).

The India Met Department has predicted a weather pattern along the same lines with parts of South India managing to receive spill-over of rain breaking out over Sri Lanka.

But the US Climate Prediction Centre has a different view. It predicts mostly normal rain during the week ending December 24 for the entire South Peninsula but a dry phase over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Kerala during the week that follows, which is the last of the year as well.

The overall rain deficit of 60 per cent for the Peninsula during this North-East monsoon is expected to stay as such as the season comes to an end with the year-end.

Better New Year?

Global weather models have been hinting that the December-January-February (2016-17) might be able to witness nearly normal rainfall for the country as a whole.

This outlook received better traction from the latest seasonal outlooks made available by the Application Laboratory of Jamstec, the Japanese national weather forecaster.

They seemed to favour less-than-normal heat during the December-January-February quarter for the South Peninsula while it will be warmer for West, North, North-West, and East India.

Normal rainfall

Mostly similar weather conditions are forecast to pan out during the March-April-May quarter for the South Peninsula while North-North-West and East India will stay warmer.

As for precipitation, Jamstec is of the view that most of the country would receive normal rainfall for the December-January-February quarter.

But March-April-May might see the normal rain pattern migrate to West and North-West India (except the fringes along Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and the foothills of the Himalayas where it will less than normal).

However, the area extending from South Peninsula and the adjoining East Coast to East India is forecast to receive just below normal rainfall during these three months.

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