In last burst, rains to scale up over central, south India over next fortnight

It may be too early to write an epitaph about this year’s monsoon. Updated forecasts suggest that its unfolding tail may carry a sting during the last two weeks

Feeding the hopes of weather watchers is raging typhoon ‘Malakas’ in the north-west Pacific off Taiwan, which is seen building a pipeline of moisture into the Bay of Bengal.

The net result has been a rain-driving low-pressure area that crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast and brought heavy rain to the neighbourhood over the past couple of days. This ‘low’ has weakened over Telangana, but outlook by various weather models suggests that at least two more such ‘lows’ may form in the Bay before the season draws to a close.

Obviously, they are expected to bring heavy rain over the entire central and western India, as well as parts of the southern peninsula.

Since the rainfall normals for September are low, these spells should help cover the current deficit of 5 per cent, if not turn in a small surplus. An extended range weather forecast by the Met Department, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, and Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture all seemed to lend support to this scenario.

Forecast for September 16-22, said that main rainfall activity (normal to slightly-above-normal) would be over the western and central parts of India, and the adjoining southern peninsula.

Normal/above-normal rainfall is expected over the country as a whole and its four homogeneous regions, except north-west India (parts from where the monsoon is withdrawing). It will be below normal in the extreme southern peninsula.

But during the next week (September 23-29) – last of the month and the season – rainfall is expected to increase with most parts of the country receiving normal/above normal rainfall.

Region-wise forecast for the next fortnight suggested that normal or above normal rainfall is likely over Bihar, hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, coastal Karnataka as well as north-interior Karnataka.

Normal or above-normal rainfall is likely to occur in either of the next two weeks over plains of Bengal, Jharkhand, western Uttar Pradesh, eastern Rajasthan, Rayalaseema and south-interior Karnataka.

Below-normal rainfall is forecast for Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, western Rajasthan, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

The monsoon would have withdrawn by then from the first seven sub-divisions mentioned above, while Kerala and Tamil Nadu are likely to stay dry.

The overall rain deficit stands at 5 per cent. What seems to have exacerbated the situation is the 16 per cent and a bigger 29 per cent shortfall during the first two weeks of September.

During this period, below-normal rainfall occurred J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat, coastal Karnataka, south-interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and finally Kerala.

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