The Union Agriculture Minister’s recent statement that the country will reach self-sufficiency in pulses and oilseeds in the coming years may be well intentioned, but will have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

It is important not to be carried away by large harvests witnessed in 2016-17 following near-normal rainfall after two years of moisture stress in many regions. The potential for the repeat of a similar harvest size this year (2017-18) is rather limited in the case of several crops.

The trends in area coverage (as of July 21) and the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall so far do not generate sufficient confidence that the country will harvest one more bumper crop of oilseeds and pulses similar to last kharif.

In oilseeds — mainly soyabean and groundnut — the planted acreage has fallen well below last year’s level at this time (124 lakh hectares now versus 145 lakh ha last year). Soybean growers in Madhya Pradesh have been agitating for higher prices. In Gujarat, groundnut growers have not been happy with low prices following a bumper harvest in 2016-17. And now, planted groundnut crop runs the risk of damage (not quantified yet) because of excessive rainfall. In pulses, overall, the acreage (93 lakh ha versus 90 lakh ha) is a tad higher this season. But in case of tur/arhar or pigeonpea — the principal pulse crop of kharif season — it is slipping; and it stands to reason.

Growers unhappy

Growers have been unhappy with the price they received and are upset with the lackadaisical approach of the Centre in undertaking price support operations. Procurement has been unequal to the size of the harvest. Their price expectations have been belied.

Therefore, on current reckoning, it stands to reason that the kharif 2017-18 production target for pulses (87.5 lakh tons) and oilseeds (254 lakh tons) may not be achieved. The harvest size is likely to fall short of the target. It would be possible to make a realistic estimate of the shortfall when the final planted numbers are available, hopefully by mid-August.

The fineprint everyone seems to overlook is that the planted acreage data are tentative and an ‘eye estimate’ provided by respective State governments. The final version may be different from what the trends suggest.

The Agriculture Minister needs to recognise that we have to move from a production-centric approach to a farmer-centric approach. If the farmer is central to agriculture, then it is necessary to build his capacity to raise crops and generate sufficient incomes to keep him motivated.

End-to-end solutions needed

A farmer-centric farm strategy goes well beyond production numbers. It has to encompass a range of activities including input delivery, water management, infusion of technology and investment in rural infrastructure. Indian agriculture calls for designing end-to-end solutions, rather than ad hoc production enhancement.

The experience of the last three years does not inspire enough confidence that policymakers are on top of the subject. A strong procurement policy coupled with a liberal trade policy is necessary. Agitations have the potential to restart if growers feel cheated again.

The writer is global agribusiness and commodities market specialist. Views are personal

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