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Jeera (cumin seed) prices have moved north again as a sudden spurt of ₹2,000 per quintal since March is fuelling speculation of a further rise in prices amid a strong export outlook.
On the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), the far month contract expiring in September stood at ₹17,160 a quintal, while the near month contract, expiring in June, stood at ₹16,585.
Spot jeera prices at Unjha market touched ₹16,850 on Friday against ₹14,900 in March. Last time, a similar upside was seen in October 2015, when jeera prices hovered around ₹16,500-17,000.
Overseas demandReduced stock for domestic consumption coupled with strong export outlook for 2016-17 has pushed jeera prices up in the domestic market.
“In the first three months, around 45,000 tonnes of the spice has been exported. Exports will continue till the next sowing in October-November. We expect total exports will cross 100,000 tonnes this year with China being a major buyer at around 35,000 tonnes,” said Vijay Joshi of Vijay Exim in Unjha.
Last year, India exported 1,55,000 tonnes. Notably, the country’s jeera exports have been on a decline since 2013-14 from 1,60,000 tonnes reported that year.
“Turkey and Syrian supplies will not have any major role in the price as their contribution will not be significant,” said Joshi.
Domestic scenarioTrade sources say most farmers have offloaded their crop. Of the total estimated crop of around 2,50,000 tonnes for Gujarat and Rajasthan, close to 70 per cent has already been sold in the market. The local demand itself is pegged at 1,65,000 tonnes, putting further pressure when exports rise.
“We have seen a prolonged weakness in jeera. Prices had hit the lowest at ₹14,100 in February this year. Since then, there has been sharp and steady upside. We can see a small correction in the price in the near future, but the overall trend will be upwards,” said a trader from Unjha.
Jeera sowing begins around October-November and harvest starts in February. The peak season for market arrivals is between February and May, with arrivals crossing 15,000 bags (of 40 kg each) per day. Currently, arrivals hover around 5,000 bags per day.
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