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The North-East monsoon arrived on the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts on Sunday but was devoid of the usual flourish.
The north-easterly winds lag in speed and tend to stray in direction, with some of the stronger flows fanning towards towards the south Tamil Nadu coast.
Organised system It will take an organised weather system (low-pressure area or depression) to consolidate the flows and ramp up them in intensity and target the entire stretch of the South-east coast. According to the India Met Department (IMD), such a weather may already be in the making in the south-east Bay of Bengal, where it is expecting a ‘low’ to form by Tuesday.
A preparatory cyclonic circulation is transiting the Malay Peninsula and would enter the south-east Bay of Bengal ‘next door’ to intensify as a ‘low.’
Since it has a long distance to travel before it can reach anywhere on the East Cost, it is expected to intensify further and become a storm, even a tropical cyclone.
Forecast track A number of weather models, including that of the IMD, had surmised that the system may be headed towards north Tamil Nadu (around Chennai) or the adjoining south coastal Andhra Pradesh. But, lately, international models are taking the storm towards north coastal Andhra Pradesh around November 5. The tracks projected are as follows:
Canadian Meteorological Centre : A cyclonic storm waiting some distance off the North AP coast by November 5.
US National Centre for Environmental Prediction : A cyclonic storm hitting the North Andhra Pradesh coast and turning towards South Odisha coast.
US Navy Global Environment Model : Minimal cyclone approaching the Chennai coast by November 5.
Rain outlook The steering away of the storm towards Andhra Pradesh, as a number of models have forecast, would also carry a bulk of associated rain away from the Tamil Nadu coast.
While Tamil Nadu would be deprived in this manner, the West Coast, including Kerala and adjoining Coastal Karnataka, may benefit as rain-laden winds from Arabian Sea blow across to feed the storm.
The IMD sees heavy rain for parts of TN and Kerala for the next two days but the heavier rains will shift later to AP in what is considered early indications that the building storm may be heading towards the North (beyond Chennai) for a landfall.
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