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A low-pressure area has materialised over the North-West Bay of Bengal and adjoining coast of Odisha on Friday, signalling the revival of the monsoon over the rain-deficient peninsular region.
Since July-end, the monsoon had virtually gone into a ‘break phase’ with the rains confined to the foothills of the Himalayas, East & North-East India and the East Coast.
‘Break’ phase to endThe India Met Department’s (IMD) hopes of a monsoon revival were best phrased in this morning’s bulletin, wherein it has said the axis of the monsoon trough over North India would start shifting to its original position.
The western end of the trough, which currently straddles the foothills, where it has been raining heavily, will shift to the normal North-West Rajasthan-Bay of Bengal alignment.
The low should help this transition after it gets anchored over the North-West Bay of Bengal, and gradually forces the shift of the other end of the monsoon trough to move south towards its normal alignment.
The monsoon is best served by an alignment in which the western end lies over Rajasthan and the eastern end dips in the Bay of Bengal.
The trough allows the orderly progression of the eastern monsoon winds from the Bay of Bengal and the associated rain belt to move across Central and North-West India.
Meanwhile, the ‘low’ has popped up over the North Bay of Bengal, but the eastern end of the displaced trough now ends up a little south-west over the North-West Bay.
Early indications are that the ‘low’ will slowly move south-west towards the Odisha-North Andhra Pradesh coast and cross the Andhra Pradesh coast, though the actual movement needs to be watched.
The heavy build-up of clouds in the Bay continued overnight, and was concentrated this morning off the coast of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Coastal Tamil Nadu.
Heavy rain forecastTowards the evening, they were spread out off the coast of Kerala and along the East Coast from Chennai to Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh, even as the ‘low’ lurked farther away to the north-east.
The Met has forecast heavy to very rain with isolated extremely heavy rain over Telangana on Friday. It will be heavy to very heavy at isolated places over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh; heavy at isolated places over South Odisha, Marathawada, Konkan & Goa, Rayalaseema, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala.
On Saturday, the heavy to very heavy rain belt should move into Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Ga, and Coastal Karnataka.
Heavy rain with isolated heavy heavy to very heavy rain is forecast for Vidarbha, Marathawada, Telangana and isolated places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Interior Karnataka and Kerala.
An almost similar trend is valid for Sunday, with the rains hurtling towards East Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, apart from the familiar regions in the South Peninsula.
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