‘Low’ may pop up in 2 days as rain spills over to West Coast

The India Met Department expects a monsoon-driving low-pressure area to spin up over Bay of Bengal in as little as next two days.

This would delay the progress of the ongoing retreat phase of the monsoon system outside of Northwest India, where it remained stalled on Friday.

Vigorous monsoon Towards the South, active to vigorous monsoon conditions spilled over from parts of the North Peninsula to the West Coast, which was whiplashed during the 24 hours ending in the morning.

The expected intensification of the cyclonic circulation to a ‘low’ should continue to bring in the rain during the weekend and even beyond.

IMD projections say the ‘low’ would find the going tough locating a place on the East Coast to beach itself and snake in over land.

The clock-wise flows around the dry and warm high-pressure area (anti-cyclone) sitting over North-West India would thwart the ‘low’ as it approaches the Odisha coast, closes to its location.

Slide along coast The strong northerly-northwesterly flows would ensure that the ‘low’ keeps sliding along the East Coast during the next week and approach a much southerly location to enter the Coast.

This movement would bring a fresh round of west spell over Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu during the phase, the India Met projections suggested.

A US Climate Prediction Centre outlook now suggests that the ‘low’ would move along west-northwesterly track from the Andhra Pradesh coast and head into Central India during September 17 to 23.

East and Northwest Maharashtra is forecast to receive heavy to very heavy rain. The rest of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and northern parts of Karnataka too are expected to witness a good spell.

Deficit status Occasional showers are likely over the rest of the country during the week. The overall rainfall deficit for the country as a whole was 15 per cent on Thursday.

The deficit over Peninsula has been coming down gradually over the past few days thanks to the revived monsoon in the region.

The trend is likely to sustain during the next week as the ‘low’ gets initiated in the Bay and gets its act together even while being forced to make a detour over the sea.

As for the rest, the deficit was climbing over North-West India (17 per cent), Central India (20 per cent) and East and North-East India (5 per cent).

The only hope for good emanates from the brewing ‘low’ and its likely interaction with a western disturbance over North-West India.

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