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The India Met Department (IMD) sees an intensified form of a low-pressure area developing off Sri Lanka/Tamil Nadu next week even as a predecessor, a conventional ‘low,’ missed its date with the North Andaman Sea on Tuesday.
Global forecasts already support the prediction of a storm formation in the Bay next week, as a preparatory ‘low’ winds its way from the Malacca Strait into South and later South-West Bay of Bengal.
Well-marked ‘low’The IMD said that the ‘low’ would become ‘well-marked’ by Monday (November 27) and park itself to the east of Sri Lanka and south-east of Tamil Nadu.
Wind-field projections show the system acquiring rapid strength and hitting the Sri Lankan coast first and then South Tamil Nadu by November 30, with a potent remnant preparing to cross extreme South Peninsula into South-East Arabian Sea.
Early forecasts are of heavy to very heavy rain over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and parts of adjoining Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Odd forecast outThe US Climate Prediction Centre has pointed to a spurt in rainfall along the Sri Lankan and South Tamil Nadu coasts during the week starting November 27 (Monday) and ending December 3 (Sunday).
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts too sees the Bay developing a churn towards the weekend, with an intense ‘low’ sitting partly over Sri Lanka, the Gulf of Mannar and South-East Tamil Nadu by December 1.
It, however, does not see the system growing beyond the level of a well-marked ‘low’ or a depression since the land features of Sri Lanka and South-East Tamil Nadu may not allow it the elbowroom needed.
Cold wave up NorthDecember storms are not unusual for the Bay with the North-West Pacific/South China Sea feeding in pulses periodically. Last year, cyclone Vardah had formed in early December, the third and most intense cyclone during the North-East monsoon.
Meanwhile, a cold wave has gripped North and North-West India for the first time this season. The cold wave will not lift until a western disturbance brings its warm, steaming air upfront and influences local climes favourably from Friday.
The region would slip again into the cold as the disturbance leaves, since its place would be filled by cold Arctic air blowing into the rear from the North-West.
This is how western disturbances modulate winter weather in the North.
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