Monsoon in full bloom in Rajasthan, North-West

As expected, the monsoon-driving low-pressure area has reached west Rajasthan where it is dropping some welcome rain over the desert as well as parts of North-West India.

Proximity to a western disturbance will help it sustain here for a day, but will die out soon after, say model forecasts.

North-West India and adjoining East may start drying up as the flows turn dry westerly guided by a typhoon building in the Pacific.

This typhoon will materialise from a weather disturbance already located over the open waters of south of Japan.

Flows headed for the typhoon and across the Bay of Bengal may rebound off the Arakan Valley in Myanmar and lob in a low-pressure area over East Bay of Bengal.

This ‘low’ is forecast to cross the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coast during the last few days of the month and propel another wet spell into Central India. It could delay the resumption of withdrawal of monsoon from south of the Vindhyas.

The latest round of rains has been lashing Madhya Pradesh just as a dry spell was proving good for the maturing soyabean pods, says Naveen Mathur, Associate Director, Commodities and Currencies, Angel Broking.

September has seen poor rains in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. The maturing groundnut and cotton crops in Gujarat also have been experiencing a dry spell since July as guar in Rajasthan.

Soyabean and guar seed had traded down but during September, while sugar, turmeric and castor have corrected on reports of widespread rains.

Maize continues to move higher on lower sowing progress from less than normal rain in the growing regions.

Meanwhile, the Northwest Pacific and progressively the South China Sea (lying next to the Bay) could see winds reverse turn from the weekend and blow north-easterly.

This should herald the northeast monsoon over these parts even as a helpful anti-cyclonic circulation forms over North Bay of Bengal.

Southern parts of the Bay may get ready to receive north-easterly flows from the first week of October and gradually the North-East monsoon.

October 15-20 is the normal timeline for the arrival of North-East monsoon (monsoon in reverse or winter monsoon) for the Bay and peninsular India.

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