Monsoon leaves South high and dry

Even as Monsoon 2016 continues to deliver a surplus across Central and North India and parts of Eastern India, it has largely been erratic in the Southern Peninsula, triggering concerns in the farming community. Crops such as rice, sugarcane, tea, coffee and pepper, among others, are seen being impacted by the rain deficit in the region.

The seasonal deficit across the region, so far, was at 13 per cent as on Wednesday (see table). Kerala leads other States in terms of rain deficiency with a shortfall of 30 per cent, followed by other met subdivisions such as coastal Karnataka and south-interior Karnataka, among others.

In fact, poor inflows into reservoirs has prompted Karnataka to stop releasing water for irrigation from end-August for water-intensive crops such as paddy in the command areas of Kaveri and Tungabhadra. “We are trying to promote crops such as ragi and fodder crops that require less water in these areas,” said a senior official of the Karnataka Agriculture Department.

Transplantation of paddy in Karnataka has been sluggish due to weak rains and acreage stood lower at 6.72 lakh ha against last year’s 6.98 lakh ha. “We are hoping that it will rain in September,” said TN Prakash Kammaradi, Chairman of the Karnataka Agricultural Prices Commission.

Farmers in Karnataka are staring at losses on two counts – lower output and prices. “As a good harvest in other States would influence prices, growers are likely to be impacted here,” he added.

Karnataka, the third largest producer of sugar after Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, will also see an impact on the production of sweetener this year as well as next year.

“Sugarcane acreage in Karnataka has dropped by about 30 per cent and we expect a decline of 30-40 per cent in output,” said Pavankumar, President of South India Sugar Mills Association’s Karnataka chapter. The acreage is lower even in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, he added.

The month of August, normally the second wettest overall, has been unkind to the Peninsula this year. The worst performance was during the week August 11-17, which left a rain deficit of 71 per cent. The India Meteorological Department does not expect any major relief to the region during the rest of the month. This is despite the possibility of a rain-generating low-pressure area taking shape in the Bay by the weekend.

The forecast for the next five days does not suggest major gains for any Met subdivision, except occasional heavy spells over parts of Konkan-Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh.

The effect of erratic rains has already been felt on plantation crops such as tea, coffee and pepper. “While a prolonged summer has already impacted coffee, the setting in pepper has been delayed on account of higher temperatures. A clearer picture on pepper will emerge by end-September,” said Bose Mandanna, a grower in Coorg, the largest pepper producing region.

The Coffee Board has already predicted an 8 per cent drop in output in coffee year starting October. Dry weather in July and August has affected tea output in South India’s main producing region, the Nilgiris. “We are expecting that a better South-East Monsoon will help revive the production,” said N Lakshmanan, a planter in the region.

Extended forecasts by the IMD until August 31 indicate the possibility of rain at a few places over the Peninsula.

The monsoon starts withdrawing from Rajasthan from September and gradually from the rest of the country. It may be too much to expect an exceptional outing for the Peninsular region. The latest outlook from the US Climate Centre suggests the genesis of a couple of low-pressure areas off the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts during the period from August 24 to September 9.

The US agency does not expect it to be so productive as to make good the rain deficit, though it has reserved its judgment on a ‘low’ expectedly active during the September 5 to 9 period.

The US National Centers for Environmental Prediction sees rains most likely to cover the eastern parts of the peninsula — parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh — and some of Karnataka.

The erratic monsoon has also benefited some crops, such as arecanut in Karnataka. “There is a lower incidence of disease such as fruit rot in arecanut,” said P Chowdappa, Director of the Kasargod-based Central Plantation Research Institute. Also, the pepper yields are likely to be higher in Kerala this year, he added.

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