Monsoon likely to see a revival from next week

Parts of peninsular India have been receiving showers over the past few days in what is considered a timid revival of the monsoon even as heavy showers remain confined in North and East India.

A more organised revival may materialise from next week, coinciding with the first few days of August, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

This is hinged on the formation of a typhoon (cyclone) in the South China Sea, west of the Philippines, and its track further west towards Hong Kong and adjoining South-West China.

The westward movement of typhoons in the North-West Pacific/South China Sea is considered beneficial to the Indian monsoon in terms of their impact on the Bay of Bengal.

In the instant case, the European Centre says the typhoon will send in a ‘pulse’ that will go on to set up a much-awaited low-pressure area in the Bay in early August (next week).

This ‘low’ will expectedly stimulate the monsoon and bring the rains back to peninsular India, most of which has been going through a lean phase since the first week of July.

The US Climate Prediction Centre, too, shares the outlook, signalling heavy to very heavy rain on the West Coast right from Konkan-Mumbai to Coastal Karnataka from July 25 to 31.

Parts of the interior peninsular region, including Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, too, are forecast to receive above-normal rain.

The week that follows may witness excess showers over Telangana, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, apart from the West Coast.

Meanwhile, the European Centre, in its extended outlook, suggests that the monsoon will hold up mostly normal in August and September with excess rain indicated for parts of peninsular India.

COMMENT NOW