Monsoon sets in over Sri Lanka; Kerala may have to wait

The India Met Department has forecast heavy rainfall at one or two places in Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka variously from Wednesday to Sunday.

Strong winds from westerly direction with speed occasionally reaching 45-55 km/hr are likely to prevail along and off the Kerala coast and over Lakshadweep area.

This is not to be confused with the onset of monsoon rainfall, as can be inferred from the forecast bulletin. In fact, the monsoon is stalled over the Andaman region after cyclone Roanu died out over Bangladesh coast.

The monsoon literally rode the cyclone to arrive in the Andaman Sea and adjoining South and South-East Bay of Bengal but has lagged after it made a landfall.

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) says cross-equatorial winds turning off East Africa coast as the South-West monsoon winds into the Arabian Sea may strengthen during five days ending Thursday.

But they will bring about below-normal rainfall over India’s South Peninsula, though heavy rain may fall at isolated places along the coast, as aforementioned.

This forecast merely says that an increase in rainfall is likely along the west coast during this period.

Meanwhile, the South-West monsoon has established over Sri Lanka on May 24 (Tuesday), the last port of call before it hits Kerala.

This is around the normal time for the annual rainy season to set in over the island. From here, it should not more than a week before the rains can reach the Kerala coast in mainland India, just to the North.

But this would be delayed by at least a week, according to the long-range forecast made by the Met Department.

The Sri Lanka Met has forecast showers and thundershowers over many parts of the island on Wednesday.

Strong windy conditions are likely over the country as a whole and in the surrounding seas especially in the southern, eastern and northern areas.

The IITM suspects that the onset of monsoon along the Kerala coast may not happen even during June 5 to 10 despite some of the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle falling into place by then.

It remains to be seen if, as is being forecast by some models, a cyclonic circulation potentially taking shape off the Konkan coast and moving away generally towards Oman could prove the disruptor.

Other likely disruptive features include a cyclone (typhoon) each being forecast to erupt over the West Indian Ocean and the North-West Pacific during the this week and the next.

Meanwhile, the hot spell in North-West India is now shifting to eastern parts of Central and Peninsular India (Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha and Telangana).

The sustained hot spell in the North-West till last week has been found to be ideal from the monsoon point of view since the upward lift of air in the region lowers pressure for the winds to blow in.

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