Mustard output set to rebound on higher acreage

After a drop in output over the past two years, production of mustard is seen rebounding this year on the back of higher rabi acreage.

Trade sources estimate the crop to be between 6.5 and 7 million tonnes, mainly on account of the higher acreage and prevailing weather conditions in the major producing States of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

Mustard planting is almost complete and per the latest data from the Agriculture Ministry, the rabi acreage under the oilseed has registered a 10.1 per cent increase over last year.

The major increase in absolute acreage has come about in Rajasthan, where farmers have planted the oilseed on an additional 3.55 lakh ha or 14.53 per cent more compared to last year. In smaller states such as Jharkhand, the acreage has more than doubled over last year.

However, in Haryana, acreage has declined by about 7.41 per cent over last year.

Officials at the Bharatpur-based Directorate of Rapeseed and Mustard Research (DRMR) attributed the increase in acreage to the higher prices that mustard fetched last season. Mustard fetched as much as ₹5,000 per quintal last year mainly on account of the lower output.

“The crop is currently in the flowering stages and the prevailing weather conditions have been supportive. There has been no incidence of pests or diseases reported so far. The crop prospects were looking better on higher area coverage this year,” an official said.

Considering an average yield of 1,000 kg per hectare, the mustard crop size should be around 7 million tonnes this year, trade sources said.

The Agriculture Ministry has set a production target of 8.5 million tonnes for the current year, while production stood at 6.82 million tonnes last year. A survey of the standing crop is about to begin in most of the growing regions.

“The crop prospects will be known after the crop survey. But there has been an increase in the sowing areas, which will lead to higher production. But we can’t say how much the production will be. On the price side, if there is an increase in the supplies, mustard oil will not command higher premium over other edible oils,” said Govind G Patel, an expert on edible oils. DRMR officials said a clearer picture on output will emerge by mid-February, whereas the harvest is likely to start from end-February. Bulk arrivals from Rajasthan were expected by late February or early March.

Vivek Puri, MD of Puri Oil Mills Ltd, said the prospects for the crop were looking better this year and expects output to be around 7 million tonnes.

“The season has been more favourable this year. There is no major damage to the crop due to rains or fluctuations in temperature. We expect the crop to be the highest in past 5-7 years at about 65 lakh tonnes,” said Jyoti Goyal, an edible oil manufacturer in Rajasthan.

Trade sources indicate that the consumption is expected to grow at a faster pace this year on increased disposable income and increasing health consciousness among the urban consumers. However, the prevailing cash crunch could have some adverse impact on the off-take, they added. According to the trade, the mustard oil consumption is growing at a steady pace of 2-4 per cent and will not be drastically affected. In such a scenario, a surge in output is, therefore, likely to increase the availability of the seeds in the market and could possibly exert pressure on the prices. Currently, the seed prices hovered around ₹3,500 per quintal in the spot market, while mustard oil at the mill-gate is quoted at ₹85/kg.

Traders peg mustard oil production estimates at 22 lakh tonnes for the year.

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