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Super typhoon Koppu may have crashed into the Philippines but indications are that the North-east monsoon will not arrive over India until after October 25, a delay of not less than five days.
Koppu has hit the northern Philippine island of Luzon with a flourish and is reportedly drenching the area in what could be a sustained and intensely strong wet spell over the next few days.
According to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, Koppu is the strongest storm to hit Luzon in over the last five years.
STORM WEAKENS
Koppu has weakened on landfall, and the remnant will track towards the north over Luzon and head into Taiwan. The landfall has been a keenly awaited moment for watchers of the North-east monsoon in India.
The weakened storm has already influenced the winds in East China Sea and adjoining north-east stretches of South China Sea to being northeasterlies.
These northeasterlies must establish in strength over the rest of the South China and adjoining Andaman Sea/Bay of Bengal to bring in the North-east monsoon.
This is not expected to happen until after October 25, according to wind projections put out by various global models.
India Met Department projected the weak northeasterlies over the Bay being made to blow as southwesterlies to feed 'Koppu' and twin typhoon 'Champi' in the northwest Pacific.
DELAYED MONSOON
It too projected winds behaving indifferently until October 25, till when forecasts were available this morning.
What emerges from these is that the North-east monsoon will be delayed until then, which is at least five days after the median of October 20.
A US Centre for Climate Prediction said that the rainfall would be below normal for most of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala (except the South-west coast and extreme south) until October 30.
In fact, Sri Lanka will be the only monsoonal region to get excess rainfall during the week ending October 30, the US agency said suggesting a delayed onset of the seasonal rains over the island nation by that time.
Monsoon watchers suspect that the North-east monsoon might be losing the early bird advantage (that the El Nino provided) to the lately-evolving positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole (positive IOD).
Here, the western Indian Ocean warms up relative to the East (neighbourhood of the Bay) in which the former takes away some of the moisture that would have otherwise accrued to the latter.
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