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North-West India looks to build on the rain surplus recorded during the first 18 days of the New Year even as a causative western disturbance prepares to move in from Afghanistan-Pakistan.
Western disturbances originating from Europe and passing through South-West Asia and the Middle-East into Pakistan and India are the principal weather generating systems during the winter.
Rain, snow forecast
The latest one calling in over North Afghanistan already looks set to dictate the weather over North-West India from that distance by spinning off a cyclonic circulation over West Rajasthan.
Fairly widespread to widespread rain/snowfall is forecast for Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand from Tuesday to Friday, an India Met Department (IMD) outlook said. Fairly widespread to widespread thundershowers are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi. The rains will be scattered to fairly widespread over West Uttar Pradesh and North Rajasthan from Wednesday to Friday.
North-West India has already recorded a 67 per cent surplus until January 18 that has helped nudge the national average to just above normal during this period.
The weather is considered ideal for the standing Rabi crop in the North-West although it risks hailstorm and groundfrost depending on the wind speeds generated and the trend in mercury levels. The IMD has forecast that ‘cold day’ conditions will prevail over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi on Wednesday and Thursday, likely bringing ground-frost conditions into play. It also said that the rest of January is likely to witness scattered to fairly widespread rain with heavy falls lashing mainly Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
The warmth brought in by the moisture content in the western disturbances may be enough to liberate the plains from cold wave conditions.
Meanwhile, the rest of the country has received indifferent precipitation with Central India posting a deficit of 81 per cent. The deficit in the East and North-East is at 78 per cent and that in the southern part of the Peninsula at 66 per cent, the IMD update said.
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