Pacific typhoon may delay North-East monsoon

The depression over East-central Arabian Sea has moved further away from the West Coast and has weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area.

Its influence on local weather is ebbing in tandem, but the India Met has forecast moderate rainfall at a few places over Konkan and adjoining South Gujarat region until Tuesday morning.

High winds Strong winds speeding up to 40 km/hr and gusting to 50 km/hr may prevail along and off Konkan, Goa and south Gujarat coasts until Tuesday morning. Sea condition would be rough.

In view of this, fishermen are advised not to venture into deep sea along and off these coasts during this period.

The last 24 hours ending Monday morning saw heavy rain being reported from isolated places in Tamil Nadu from the churn caused by opposing winds over the State.

Weak north easterlies blowing from upcountry ran into remnant south westerly winds from the Arabian Sea to set up turbulence over the region and rain down the moisture.

This activity is likely to end soon, and the wind flow to turn north-easterly over the peninsula from tomorrow, going by the projections of the Met.

Reverse monsoon But it will take a while before the flows over adjoining Bay of Bengal switch direction in this manner in order to prepare the ground for the North-east monsoon.

The reason is a building typhoon over West Pacific that is heading towards the Philippines initially and rebounding off the higher reaches of archipelago and speeding away north-northeast towards Japan.

The typhoon will pull in flows from the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea right into May 20, up to which forecasts were available.

This will not allow the easterly-to-north easterly flows to fall into place over the Bay of Bengal. The shift of winds is not expected to happen until the typhoon makes landfall over East Japan and weakens in the process.

According to global forecasts, the landfall is expected to happen by October 20-21. So, the North-East monsoon is likely to be delayed until then.

Rainfall deficit Meanwhile, the country as a whole has received less than normal rain during the first 12 days of October, even as the South-West monsoon wagged its tail over the southern peninsula.

The deficit is 44 per cent even after accounting for surplus rain in the South in which Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep received above-normal rainfall.

More rain is forecast for the region later in the week, according to a Met forecast.

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