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A strong cyclone in the Arabian Sea has, contrary to forecasts, drained the North-East monsoon over Tamil Nadu of vital moisture and weakened it for the time being.
Cyclone ‘Chapala’ took shape over East-central Arabian Sea early this morning and is forecast to intensify as an ‘extremely severe cyclone’ (just below the rank of super cyclone), away from Indian coast.
Caught unawaresThe pace at which the transformation took place overnight and the forecast level of intensification caught most weather forecasters unawares.
They had expected a counterpart low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal to move in tandem from off the Sri Lanka coast to the Tamil Nadu coast and start raining down heavily.
But on Thursday, this ‘low’ had weakened and was seen drifting over Sri Lanka, with a band of southerly winds blowing towards the Tamil Nadu coast.
According to Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, these winds will still be able to bring in moderate to heavy rains along the coast towards the weekend. The India Met Department said that ‘Chapala’ had been moving at a speed of 14 km/hr to drop anchor on Thursday afternoon 1,140 km west-southwest of Mumbai and 1,060 km east-southeast of Salalah, Oman.
Severe cycloneIt would move west-northwestwards and intensify into a severe cyclonic by the night and further into a ‘very severe’ and an ‘extremely severe’ cyclone.
It is expected to cross North Yemen and adjoining Oman coast by Monday evening.
Meanwhile, North-East monsoon flows are expected to strengthen once ‘Chapala’ weakens.
A number of international forecasters are now scouring the Bay of Bengal for signs of a storm developing in the basin.
IMD has now joined them to mount a watch for a low-pressure area likely taking shape to the South-southwest of Andaman Sea during the first week of November and intensifying.
What gives them confidence is the fact that the storm-builder Madden-Julian Oscillation wave is widely expected to stay anchored over the waters in the region at least until November 3.
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