Thundershowers seen lashing parts of North, South during next fortnight

All available forecasts suggest that a regime of rain or thundershowers may materialise over parts of North-West, East/North-East and Peninsular South India early next week.

Currently, entire North and North-West and most parts of the Peninsular South are under acute moisture stress with no meaningful rainfall having been reported for a long time.

Rain spread An India Met Department outlook for three days from February 9 (Tuesday next) said that rain or thundershowers are very likely over the plains of North-West, East, and South Peninsular India.

According to the US Centre for Climate Prediction, the areas likely benefiting are Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, north Rajasthan, and parts of Haryana and Delhi.

In the East, south-west Bihar, east Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal and parts of Odisha could likely come under occasional shower.

Practically the entire North-Eastern region is also seen benefiting from the wet spell, says the US agency.

Southerly bias But it saw the maximum amount of rain falling over South Peninsula, particularly the Met subdivisions of Kerala, South Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

According to the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction, Kerala and adjoining coastal Karnataka are likely to share the spoils here.

As for the North, the maximum precipitation is likely to unfold along the foothills of east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar during the week ending February 12.

The rain in the North-West, East and North-East is being attributed to the eastward movement of an itinerant western disturbance, one of which is already lying over Afghanistan-Pakistan.

Opposing waves The rain in the South Peninsula would result from the movement in exactly the opposite direction of an easterly wave from the Gulf of Thailand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and South-West Bay of Bengal.

The wave will likely be positioned to hit the landmass of Sri Lanka first; it would also stimulate the waters of adjoining South-East Arabian Sea, bringing rain mostly into Kerala.

But an extended outlook for the week February 12 to 20 indicates that even more rain, and better organised, is likely for North-West India, East India, entire East Coast and South Peninsula.

This is forecast to result from the interaction of a passing westerly wave in the North (western disturbance) and stronger easterly wave activity in the South.

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