Thundershowers seen spreading across landscape from next week

Parts of East India and North-East India received occasional thundershowers during the 24 hours ending on Tuesday morning but the wait continued in the plains of North-West India and West India.

An India Met Department (IMD) update said that rain or thundershowers occurred over most parts of Arunachal Pradesh and at many places over West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam and Meghalaya until Tuesday morning.

Extended outlook Isolated places over Bihar, Odisha, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura also received thundershowers.

The occasional wet spell in the East was overseen by an upper air trough from Sub-Himalayan West Bengal to South Odisha across Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand with an embedded cyclonic air circulation over West Bengal and neighbourhood.

An extended outlook by the Met from Sunday (Feb 14) to Tuesday spoke about the possibility of rain or thundershowers over North-East India, East India and South Peninsular India.

As for North-West India, the Met outlook said that isolated to scattered rain/snow is likely over the western Himalayan region on Wednesday.

Rain or thundershowers is likely to occur at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana, west Rajasthan and east Uttar Pradesh on Monday (February15).

Interactive rain Meanwhile, an outlook by the US Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) sees an incoming westerly wave over North-West India setting up an interaction with a trough/s in the peninsular seas to trigger a line-up of thunderstorms over North-West, Central and Peninsular India next week.

There is already enhanced activity in the Bay of Bengal with a non-seasonal low-pressure area having sprung up over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining South Andaman Sea.

This has set up a wave of rainfall across the South Bay of Bengal in the direction of Sri Lanka and adjoining Tamil Nadu.

The CPC expects that the Tamil Nadu coast may get some rain during the ongoing week itself (February 9 to17).

Wide swathe The causative rain wave in South Bay of Bengal could excite the adjoining South-East Arabian Sea around Sri Lanka and Kerala, bringing rain to these places as well.

Meanwhile, interaction between the thundershower regimes in the North-West and the South Peninsula would bring rain or thundershowers to areas in-between.

According to this outlook, heavy snow/rain could be expected over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the week under reference (February 15 to 21).

Rain or thundershowers are forecast varyingly over a wide swathe covering Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, central Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the rest of South Peninsula and Sri Lanka.

Rainfall deficit Rainfall deficit for the country as whole from the start of the New Year (until Febraury 3) is 63 per cent, with West India being the most affected. Entire Gujarat (comprising the Met subdivisions of Saurashtra-Kutch and Gujarat Region), Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Konkan-Goa recorded no rain at all (deficit of 100 per cent) during this period.

The entire North-West India falls under the ‘scanty rainfall’ category (deficit ranging from 60 per cent to 99 per cent). This region covers Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

The rest of the ‘scanty rainfall’ area is distributed in Central India and adjoining North Peninsular India followed by South Peninsula. Most of East India and the North-East fall under the ‘deficient rainfall’ category (20 per cent to 59 per cent).

COMMENT NOW