West Coast may remain vulnerable in view of fresh ‘low’

The Konkan and Mumbai witnessed some relent on Wednesday after a roaring monsoon pummelled the area with heavy downpour during the 24 hours ending in the morning.

Global forecasts indicated that the area, as also the rest of the West Coast, would remain vulnerable in view of the fact that a rain-driving low-pressure area from the Bay of Bengal has washed over coast and entered interior East India.

By Wednesday evening, the ‘low’ was located to over North Chhattisgarh, and had rolled out a ‘trough’ across Central India with its western end reaching into the Konkan after cutting through Vidarbha and Marathwada in Maharashtra.

Thus the trough itself is an extension of the ‘low’ and would, therefore, represent the core around which rainfall is likely to spread out till such time as it remains active.

The Met Department has indicated this in its forecast for Thursday by putting out a warning which said that heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Konkan and Goa as well as North Madhya Maharashtra.

But heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast at a few places with isolated extremely heavy rainfall over West Madhya Pradesh, which lies next to Konkan-Mumbai and South Gujarat.

Heavy to very rain has been forecast also over Vidarbha while it would be isolated heavy over Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, the hills of Bengal, and the North-eastern States.

By Friday, the belt of heavy rain is forecast to start shifting to North-West India with Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, and West Madhya Pradesh likely falling under its footprint.

On Saturday, the rain would escalate over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand where it would be heavy to very heavy; it will be heavy over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh.

The same day, fresh rains would start lashing the southern parts of the country with Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka in focus. This is expected to be triggered by a new circulation forming in the Bay of Bengal.

The IMD’s windfield maps drop sufficient hints to this effect, which is more or less corroborated by global forecast models, including those employed by the US Climate Prediction Centre.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates that the circulation may form off the South Andhra Pradesh coast before extending its geographical reach to the Odisha coast by September 29/30.

The US agency says that above normal rainfall is likely over Peninsular India during the week ending October 2 with another flare-up likely along the West Coast, especially over Konkan-Mumbai.

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