Dark clouds now hang over the Paris climate agreement

The election of Donald Trump may see climate negotiators go into crisis mode. The concerns stem from Trump’s various statements — such as his 2012 tweet, “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive.”

Trump’s presidency could mean the US choosing to walk out of the Paris agreement, possibly even the United Nations Framework on Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC), scrapping the Clean Power Plan brought in by President Barack Obama, reducing spending on alternative energy, and a massive addition to emissions from the US, even as the world tries to reduce the pressure.

“I think he will try and find a way out of the deal. Even if he doesn’t move out of the deal, he is likely to be obstructionist,” Chandra Bhushan, Deputy Director General of the Centre for Science and Environment, told BusinessLine .

While the US laws allow a President to act on an executive order and exit any international agreement, the Paris agreement itself imposes a time limitation.

“The US would be able to give a notice for withdrawal only after three years, and a year since then it would come into effect,” explained Lavanya Rajamani of the Centre for Policy Research.

A quicker way for Trump to bring his campaign promise to fruition would be to exit the UNFCCC altogether, a move that can be made immediately.

Some climate negotiators believe the ratification of the Paris deal by several countries on a war footing was done in anticipation of such an event, making it tougher for the country to back out. The deal came into force on November 4, just days before the US election.

However, the real danger, according to experts, is that the US would, under Trump, ignore the commitments made by it. There are no penalties for failing to adhere to goals under the agreement.

More recently, though, Trump has indicated the importance of oil and coal in his plans.

He has elucidated his dislike of the regulations brought in by the US Environmental Protection Agency, and has suggested the country would save $100 billion over eight years by cutting all spending on climate change, including renewable energy.

According to an S&P Global Market Intelligence report, “Trump’s possible efforts to end incentives for alternative energy development would boost near-term demand for fossil fuels. For example, a potential cut in the Investment Tax Credit to 10 per cent from the current 30 per cent would slash solar installation demand by 60 per cent.”

Bhushan said: “I don’t think US is going to give funds for the Green Climate Fund. His plans give an indication towards this.”

According to a recent paper by Lux Research, the change in the US energy landscape under Trump would add a mammoth 3.4 billion tonnes to emissions over eight years, taking the country back by years. This would be primarily fuelled by the oil and coal economy plan.

The country currently has CO2 emissions of 6.7 billion tonnes annually.

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