Powered by a sharp rise in manufacturing and gains from benign crude oil prices, the Indian economy is expected to grow 7.6 per cent in 2015-16, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has said.

This estimate is well above the 7.2 per cent GDP growth clocked in 2014-15. It is also higher than the 7-7.5 per cent growth range projected by the Finance Ministry for the current fiscal.

A better-than-expected economic growth for 2015-16 may encourage Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to look at more structural reforms in the upcoming Budget.

Manufacturing growth for 2015-16 is likely to be at 9.5 per cent, much higher than the 5.5 per cent growth in 2014-15, official data released by CSO on Monday said.

Thanks to the benign global crude oil prices and the Centre’s decision to prune subsidy payouts, the overall subsidy bill is expected to decline this fiscal, thereby improving the GDP numbers.

For 2015-16, the Gross Value Added (at basic prices) is estimated to grow 7.3 per cent as against 7.1 per cent in 2014-15.

The sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7 per cent are ‘financial, real estate and professional services’, ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to Broadcasting’ and manufacturing.

The growth in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ and ‘mining and quarrying’ is estimated to be 1.1 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively.

Meanwhile, the CSO has pegged the third-quarter GDP growth at 7.3 per cent, higher than 6.6 per cent recorded in Q3 last year. Q1 (April-June) GDP growth for the current fiscal has been revised up, to 7.6 per cent, from 7 per cent estimated earlier.

Govt’s take Reacting to the latest GDP numbers, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said, “There is improvement in the numbers, which is quite satisfying. Policies and reforms taken by the government over the last two years are beginning to show results.”

Srivats.kr@thehindu.co.in

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