Met department endorses global predictions

The below-normal monsoon forecast made by the India Met Department on Thursday seeks to endorse what global climate models have been indicating since the beginning of the year.

Updates made by models from the US, the UK, Japan and South Korea also indicate where rainfall deficiencies are likely to crop up.

West and North-West India, central India and peninsular India are expected to variously undergo prolonged dry spells during the four-month period.

East and North-East India might just look a shade better at the end of it all, if these forecasts are to be believed.

At least one agency warned of a disastrous July for entire country. Three of the four models signalled to the cooler than normal summer over west and North-West India.

This could be a major factor slowing down the monsoon. Sustained heating of land over west and North-West India causes air to expand and lift, creating lower atmospheric pressure (called ‘heat low’).

It is into this vacuum that monsoon winds from the South-West coast (which has a higher pressure) and from the South-East (Bay of Bengal) blow, bringing the entire landmass under rain cover.

But a weak pressure gradient will undermine these dynamics and weaken the monsoon flows from the South-West and the South-East.

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