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The Central Statistics Office will continue to release two sets of advance estimates on economic growth, a practice which it started this year with the change in the Budget timeline.
“That will continue for sometime and maybe later we will take a call on it after discussion with other users whether they would like a second advance estimate or not,” said TCA Anant, Chief Statistician and Secretary, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
Though an official date for the release is yet to be announced but, by early next month, the government will have an official indication of economic growth for the current fiscal, which it will in turn use to base its assumptions for 2018-19.
The Centre is hopeful of 7-per cent GDP growth this fiscal, as the impact of demonetisation and the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax wears of. The economy is, however, estimated to have clocked six per cent growth in the first half of the financial year.
With the Budget advanced to February 1, the CSO from this year began issuing two sets of advance GDP estimates — on January 6 and February 28.
Anant said the CSO changed the date of the Advance Estimate to January for the government to have official forecast for the Budget preparation.
“We continued with the second estimate because that was based on the methodology and data which is comparable to the past,” he told BusinessLine .
The second advance estimate is prepared using more detailed data on sectors such as industrial production.
Meanwhile, Anant also indicated that the CSO will eventually move to a system of releasing advance estimates on full year economic growth along with the quarterly data.
“In many countries, the practice is that every quarterly estimate is also accompanied with an advance estimate. In India, because our quarterly data is relatively thin, we have not been giving full advance estimate with every quarterly estimate,” he said, while adding that such a move is not expected any time soon.
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