A seasonal spurt in vegetable prices next month could partly reverse the benefits of low global oil prices reducing inflation and increasing disposable incomes, the Reserve Bank warned today.

“The sharp reduction in oil prices as well as in inflation is likely to increase personal disposable incomes and improve domestic demand conditions in the year ahead,” the central bank said in its monetary policy document.

Inflation, excluding food and fuel, declined for the second consecutive month in December. This was largely on account of the declining prices of transport and communication since August, reflecting the impact of plummeting global crude oil prices, and softer commodity prices more generally.

“However, seasonal increases in vegetable prices, which typically set in around March, have to be monitored carefully,” RBI said, adding that the retail inflation is likely to be around the target level of 6 per cent by January 2016.

The upside risks to inflation stem from the unlikely possibility of significant fiscal slippage, uncertainty on the spatial and temporal distribution of the monsoon as also the low probability but highly influential risks of reversal of crude prices due to geo-political events, it said.

Referring to economic activities, it said the revision in the base year for GDP and calculation methods will mean some revision in GDP numbers for 2014-15 as well as in forecasts.

However, RBI has retained the baseline projection for growth (using the old GDP base) at 5.5 per cent for 2014-15 and 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal.

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